Main Factors That Influence Exchange Rates

The exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country's relative level of economic health. It plays a vital role in trade, which is critical to most free market economies. But exchange rates matter on a smaller scale too. They even impact the real return of an investor's portfolio.  Here we’ll look at the main factors influencing exchange rates.

Factor 1: Differentials in Inflation.  As a general rule, a country with a consistently lower inflation rate exhibits a rising currency value, as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies. Those countries with higher inflation typically see depreciation in their currency's value in relation to the currencies of their trading partners.

Factor 2: Differentials in Interest Rates. By manipulating interest rates, central banks exert influence over both inflation and exchange rates.  Higher interest rates offer lenders a higher return relative to other countries. The impact of higher interest rates is mitigated, however, if a country's inflation is much higher than other countries', or if additional factors serve to drive their currency value down. The opposite relationship exists for decreasing interest rates.

Factor 3: Current-Account Deficits.  The current account is the balance of trade between a country and its trading partners, reflecting all payments between countries for goods, services, interest and dividends. A deficit in the current account shows a country is importing goods and services more than it isexporting them. The country will then typically borrow capital from foreign sources to make up the deficit, causing its currency to depreciate relative to its trading partner. 

Factor 4: Public Debt.  Countries will engage in large-scale deficit financing to pay for public sector projects using governmental funding. While such activity stimulates the domestic economy, nations with large public deficits and debts are less attractive to foreign investors. This is because a large debt encourages more inflation, and higher inflation translates into lower currency value.

Factor 5: Terms of Trade. A country's terms of trade is a ratio comparing export prices to import prices. If the price of a country's exports rises by a greater rate than that of its imports, its terms of trade have favorably improved, which tends to show currency appreciation.  However, if the price of a country's importsrises more than the rate of exports, their currency's value will decrease in relation to trading partners.

Factor 6: Political Stability and Economic Performance.  Foreign investors inevitably seek out stable countries with strong economic performance in which to invest their capital. Political turmoil, for example, can cause a loss of confidence in a currency, and a movement of capital to the currencies of more stable countries.

The return of a portfolio that holds currency is affected by that currency's exchange rate. Moreover, the exchange rate is highly correlated to other income factors, such as interest rates, inflation and even capital gains from domestic securities.

http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/main-factors-influence-exchange-rates/?utm_source=forex-free&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=FXWeekly-10/4/2014

Billionaire Says Silver Is Still the Investment of the Decade

After silver's recent fall, a rare scenario has formed that can only be called...

Silver's "Doubling Effect"

Because of this phenomenon...
Every time silver gains 1%.. you make 2%.
A 25% gain pays 50%... A 100% gain pays 200%!

But you'd better hurry. The price of silver may
very soon super-spike higher than $237/oz.

Dear Reader,

What I'm about to share with you is no coincidence.

It's not a temporary trend, either.

Instead, it's a moneymaking development so powerful that our team of researchers spent the past eight months investigating it... just to make sure it was real.

Take a look and you'll see why:

First, let me say that these charts are NOT duplicates. The one on the left represents the closing price of physical silver over the past few months. The one on the right is the investment we're following extremely closely.

Now, at first they appear virtually identical...

And they should. One is directly based on the other.

But that's where the similarities end.

How so?

Just check out the two charts again — only this time, with gains attached:

From June 27 through August 27, 2013, physical silver prices soared 32.2%.

But the diamond in the rough we uncovered soared an astonishing 71.2% — more than doubling the gains silver attained!

I know, it looks crazy.

In fact, when we first heard about this opportunity, we couldn't believe it, either...

(Scratch that — we thought our source had been drinking a little too much Maker's Mark.)

After all, how could an investment exist that is directly related to silver prices...

That pays you DOUBLE the gains silver makes?

A 25% gain pays you 50%... a 50% gain doubles your money... and so on!

It seems completely illogical.

And that's why we kept this discovery under wraps... until now.

You see, before we could show you an opportunity this powerful, we needed to know exactly what we had.

We also needed to know how and when would be the best time for hungry investors like you to start taking advantage of it...

Today, that's exactly what I'm prepared to show you.

How Capitol Hill Could Make You Filthy Rich

Imagine for a moment that you knew about certain factors — already in place — that would cause the price of silver to start skyrocketing as soon as next month...

Even better, you knew you were facing a "bottom" in silver prices, and that this imminent surge could last a couple of years.

Taking advantage of this one-of-a-kind investment at the right time, you'd be able to ride the coming wave and easily collect a fortune — safely pulling in twice the gains silver makes.

The best part is, unlike other investors who are buying expensive futures contracts or taking delivery of physical silver, you don't need a lot of money to get started...

In fact, you can begin collecting "The Doubling Effect" with as little as $25.

All you need to know is when.

And, thanks to the boys on the Hill, we don't have to look for any crazy trends around the corner, pore through complicated computer models, or rely on overpaid, so-called "experts" to tell you when silver prices are going to surge.

The truth is all you have to do is thank two separate trillion-dollar wars, the printing of $1 trillion per year in "free money," and a national debt that is now hovering around $17 trillion.

In fact, it's because of the Federal Reserve's last-ditch efforts to keep the U.S. economy afloat that we're now staring straight at the largest inflationary period in years.

And it'll blow wide open... as soon as January!

You see, broke Uncle Sam doesn't really have the cash on hand for this unprecedented funding. And if you think for a second that every single employed American (and there aren't many of them these days) is going to be taxed additional thousands each year to pay for it — in an already stretched-thin economy — think again...

In reality, every dollar the Fed has printed has made all dollars worth less.

After all, the more of something there is, the less value it has. That's inflation.

And with as much Monopoly Money as we've printed, an inflationary shockwave is sure to sweep across the entire nation.

As I'm sure you know, when there's inflation — even the rumor of inflation — silver prices do something beautiful...

They skyrocket.

And the proof that silver's already revving its engine is all around us:

• In August, UBS reported that global central bank precious metal buying was "substantially higher" than in previous months, with over half a million pounds purchased in July alone.

• Investors seeking safer investments are buying so much physical silver that bullion dealers as well as producers can't keep up. The U.S. Mint has set several sales records this year.

• Consumer demand for silver is at its highest level ever, and 2013 silver sales will set an all-time record.

And that's just in the short term.

I haven't even shown you why...

History Will Repeat:
Silver Prices Could Super Spike to $237... 
Making You a Massive Fortune Along the Way!

Right now, silver sells for around $25 an ounce.

But current factors at play — happening this very moment — could soon make the $25 mark look like pocket change.

With the investment tool we uncovered, if silver doubles in price to $50, you'll make 200%.

That turns every $1,000 you invest into $2,000.

For reasons I'm about to show you, though, you could soon reap much more than that...

At the beginning of this century, you would've laughed in my face if I told you silver would soon shoot up over 1,000%.

Silver traded below $8.00 for virtually all of the 1990s.

In 2001, silver's price spent long stretches below $4.20 an ounce. And it languished there until the early signs of crisis began to show themselves.

Silver began 2005 below $6.50. It finished the year closer to $9.

It crested $15 in 2006... touched $21 in 2008... closed 2010 above $30... and ultimately peaked at $48.70 in April 2011.

When the smoke cleared, silver had turned in a ten-year run worth 1,059% — climbing from $4.20 to over $48.00 per ounce.

If today's silver bull market makes a similar move forward, silver prices could skyrocket well past $237 an ounce.

Just take a look:

Now, silver prices at $237 may seem like a stretch — especially considering the fact that the white metal hasn't had much strength over $35.

Nevertheless, $237 silver is absolutely possible.

Here's why...

How a Metal Bull Market Works

Every major metal bull market in modern history has consisted of three main stages:

1. Currency Devaluation Stage

2. Investment Demand Stage

3. Mania Stage

During these three stages, silver prices typically rise in a parabolic upswing, which ultimately results in a sharp, skyrocketing price spike.

Take, for example, the Great Depression...

Silver went from $0.254 to $0.437 from 1932 to 1933 — a one-year gain of 72%.

It then spiked higher than $0.58 over the next two years.

Or consider the 1970s, when silver started the decade at $1.63 and finished it at over $21 per ounce — a gain of 1,188%!

Right now we are staring straight at those kinds of silver gains, yet again.

So far in today's silver bull market, we've seen evidence of the first two stages...

During the first stage of a silver bull market, prices increase because of currency devaluation.

So far in this bull market, a dramatic drop in the value of the U.S. dollar against other world currencies has lifted silver prices. That began in 2001 and 2002, when the U.S. dollar index stood at 120. Silver traded for $4.20.

By 2006, after a dot-com bust and with two wars blaring, the dollar index had fallen to 88. Silver traded for $9.80.

Bernanke was appointed in 2006.

By 2011, the U.S. dollar index had fallen below 74.

The very month the dollar index bottomed — April 2011 — silver prices topped at over $48.

The dollar's value FELL by 38% in a decade.

Silver WENT UP over 1,000%.

Silver's recent fall was only a pause in this bull market, a breather from the race.

Because here we are — a $17 trillion debt, years of money printing we can't afford, an economy that just won't heal... and we're about to add some dynamite to an alreadyhighly explosive silver situation.

In the second stage, silver prices continue to grow due to increased investment demand.

Attracted by the gains of the first stage of the silver bull market, investors begin to buy silver as an investment, which further snowballs the price of silver higher.

And with today's screaming demand for physical silver, the introduction of silver ETFs and other similar products... investment demand has had incredible strength since the beginning of this silver bull market, growing in terms of both tonnage and dollar demand.

Again, the first and second stages of a silver bull market generally return considerable gains. In fact, silver prices in this bull market have increased as much as 423%, from $9.17 an ounce in 2006 to over $48.

Of course, with the investment tool that I'm about to show you, that 423% return could've stuffed your pockets with more than 840% gains!

Don't worry if you missed it. Truth be told, it's the third and final stage of a silver bull market that can turn everyday investors into instant millionaires...

The Mania Stage of a Silver Bull Market could Hand YOU
Several Thousand Percent Gains in Short Order

Everyone knows there's no rush like a metals rush.

And a speculative mania can kindle an inferno of popular greed that rivals that of the Conquistador's legendary lust for gold.

During the third stage of a bull market, mania buying finally turns silver's parabolic upswing into a blistering price spike.

Make no mistake, mania stage is already beginning...

And this time, it's happening across the entire globe:

• Earlier this year, the U.S. Mint suspended sales for its American Eagle one-ounce silver coin.

• Holdings in ETFs backed by silver are at an all-time high — over 44 million pounds!

• Monthly silver sales from the Perth Mint are averaging TWICE the monthly sales in 2012.

• U.S Mint sales of silver are up 45% over last year.

And this rapidly spreading shortage is only the beginning of what is bound to launch silver prices to levels of mass hysteria... making those on top of the wave filthy rich.

Now let me tell you how you can...

Double Your Silver Profits Using This Unique Investment Tool

7 Major Reasons to Invest in Silver 

1. The amount of silver consumed annually and bought for investment currently exceeds total annual mining output — and has for years.

2. The last time silver was found in huge concentrations or veins was in the Comstock Lode in Nevada in the late 1800s.

3. Silver is the most conductive metal on earth.

4. Silver is an essential element in the electronic gadgets that are a growing part of our digital age. It is a critical component of every cellphone, smartphone, tablet, computer keyboard, solar cell, and radio frequency ID device (RFID).

5. Silver's industrial demand should increase 60% to 666 million ounces per  year by 2016 from 487 million ounces per year in 2010.

6. Of a total of 50 billion ounces of silver that have been mined in history, only 2 million ounces (estimate), or 5%, remain in aboveground inventories available to be bought and sold.

7. Silver also has many medicinal applications. Roman soldiers long ago noticed that if water is kept in silver cups, it wouldn't become stagnant. Today silver in "colloidal" form is used as a broad-spectrum antibiotic.

During the midst of the Great Recession, one of the world's leading international investment managers quietly launched a new, one-of-a-kind investment vehicle designed to double the daily return of silver prices.

Mind you, this investment has been all but ignored by media since its launch.

Silver, after all, has never been understood or appreciated by the mainstream, despite its historic economic significance.

Still, for every 1% increase in the price of silver, this new silver investment vehicle delivers a positive 2% return.

There's no investment club to join. You won't have to open a special account to get in on the action. It trades on the NYSE.

Plus, it's completely liquid — and easy to add to any stock account you own right now.

To top it off, as you already know, now is the time you want to be in silver!

Yes, silver prices have pulled back quite a bit... but for all the reasons I just laid out for you, it simply can't stay this low for long.

Sooner or later, the U.S. dollar will collapse. It's imminent.

In fact, we're already uncovering tons of evidence to prove that it's already started.

And it's launching the mania buying stage to previously unthinkable levels... making this new silver investment vehicle a true "no-brainer."

Now, before I get into the details of how you could start collecting DOUBLE silver's profits, let me briefly introduce myself...

Watching from The Crow's Nest

Hi. I'm Jimmy Mengel.

I'm Angel Publishing's managing editor of Outsider Club and our financial planning advisory, The Crow's Nest.

Where, exactly, does the name "The Crow's Nest" come from?

In the days of naval conquest, explorers were only as good as their lookout...

The best lookouts were built atop the highest point of a ship's mast, an area aptly named after the birds that would often perch there: the crow's nest.

While dangerous to climb, it was there that the lookout could see for miles out and identify any hazards, traps, or storms, well before they threatened the ship.

Not only did they spot potential threats and dangers, but a good lookout could spy treasure, land, and opportunity to safely guide the captain to riches and prosperity.

It is for this reason that the success of most ships depended on the crow's nest.

As you can imagine, today's financial landscape shares much with the high seas of pirate lore. The world of personal finance is filled with tricks, traps, fees, and scalawags...

But instead of Blackbeard coming for your booty, you have bankers, money managers, and government officials with their beady eyes fixed on emptying your pockets.

It's time to wake up and take matters into your own hands — not just with investments, but in every financial aspect of your life.

After all, you are the captain of your own ship.

But a captain is only as good as his crew... and that's why we at The Crow's Nest are ready to break our backs for you.

We are your own personal lookout, at your service and ready to steady the turbulent seas of finance.

We will demystify your finances and arm you with the knowledge and research you need to save, grow your money, and prosper — all on your own.

The Crow's Nest will teach you, step by step, how to completely take control of your finances — from buying stocks to plotting your retirement, taking advantage of tax breaks, and simply plugging the money leaks that threaten to sink your finances.

And of course, The Crow's Nest will reveal how you can make DOUBLE silver's daily return... starting today!

If you are ready to not only protect your wealth from this economic insanity, but also profit like you never imagined, I want to give you a fresh copy of my latest report.

It's called, "Silver's Doubling Effect."

And I want you to have it for FREE.

I also want to give you a brand-new, uncirculated one-ounce American Silver Eagle coin with my compliments, just as soon as you...

Get Started Doubling Your Silver Profits

To receive your free silver report, all I ask is that you agree to a risk-free $69 trial of The Crow's Nest.

The Crow's Nest isn't your normal investment advisory...

It is the definitive resource for investors seeking profits — and protection — in a precious metals bull market with no end in sight.

It's where investors burned by the financial crisis are now turning, as a safe haven alternative to the agenda-guided mainstream financial media.

Truth is in our Crow's Nest portfolio, we disqualify 99.9% of the mining and precious metals plays out there...

But when we're fully 100% behind a potential lucrative investment — like this rare silver opportunity — you'll get the trade recommendation in a moment's notice.

We tell you what to buy, when to sell, and when to hold... so you can enjoy the greatest gains possible.

Plus, every month you'll receive profit-producing research, including my special Crow's Nest reports and urgent updates, as well as unrestricted access to The Crow's Nestexclusive members' site...

All for just $69 a year. That's less than $0.24 a day!

In other words, for less than a stick of gum, you can begin receiving my Crow's Nestadvisory... in addition to getting a free copy of my new special report, "Silver's Doubling Effect."

The intel in that report — combined with what you'll see in the monthly updates — has the potential for payoffs so large, you may never go back to your broker for advice again.

Let me help you make those returns.

Now, I should tell you that I can't promise this deeply discounted $69 price I'm offering will remain that low for long...

My publisher's already talking of hiking the price by several hundred dollars more per year. (Not that I can blame him. I've seen other services boasting a fraction of the returns I've delivered to investors like you over the years charging as much as $5,000.)

However, locking in a one-year membership guarantees that you receive The Crow's Nest at the low rate of $69 — even after other people start paying a higher rate.

Want to save even more?

Choose the lifetime option, and this valuable info will be yours for just pennies per day... and I'll send you a brand-new one-ounce American Silver Eagle coin as a personal "thank you" for trying out my service.

And if you're not completely satisfied with the quality of service and commentary we offer, simply call us any time in the next six months and I'll refund every penny. No questions asked, no fine print.

You have a full half-year to test-drive everything I've outlined today.

How many other services have you seen that offer you a guarantee like that?

Even if you choose to cancel, you can hang on to your copy of "Silver's Doubling Effect" as my way of saying thank you for trying out The Crow's Nest.

But like I said, silver's ascent is already beginning... and it's not turning back any time soon.

So I urge you to join us and receive your free report by clicking on the button below.

Double silver profits are waiting...

All hands on deck,

Jimmy Mengel

Editor, The Crow's Nest

http://www.angelnexus.com/o/web/64017?r=1

Renungan Ustaz Forex

HUKUM PERDAGANGAN FOREX

Video

Satu artikel cukup menarik untuk difikir dan diambil tindakan. Rujukan

http://www.lifespan.com/10-reasons-will-never-become-rich/

Ten Reasons Why Someone Will Never Be Rich

1. Overspending

If you have a ferocious appetite for spending beyond your means, you’re not alone. According to a survey, of the 52% of people who habitually overspend, many balance the shortfall by taking from their savings, and 22% rely on credit cards. Blowing all your money each month is not a realistic pathway to wealth. Start tracking where your money goes each month, check where you can cut back, and create a ‘realistic’ budget that allows you to pay your bills and invest in a retirement account or an emergency fund.

2. Not Saving Enough

Welcome to the club! The personal savings percentage in the US is a measly 4.9% of disposable income. Saving should become a priority if you want to accumulate wealth. Start with an emergency fund. Once your emergency fund is substantial, you can redirect small amounts toward other goals like purchasing a home or paying for college.

3. You Have Too Much Debt

Certain debts are a precursor to financial success, like purchasing real estate or starting a business; however, a high-interest credit card balance is not. Pay off credit cards with the highest rates first.

4. You Don’t Have a Plan

Without a definite, clearly defined plan, becoming rich will seem like an unbelievable dream. This alone will solidify your excuses for overspending and not saving. As the saying goes, “Those who fail to plan, plan to fail.” Putting together a financial plan may seem tedious, but it doesn’t have to be, and you can get used to it.

5. You Don’t Have an Emergency Fund

Experts say you need at least six months of income saved in case of an emergency. Life is tricky, and not having some type of safety net can turn a comfortable situation into a disaster.

6. You Started Late

Time is slipping by. Just like starting an exercise routine, the most difficult part about saving is getting started. Even if you have debt, a small income, or many expenses, you can save something, even if it’s only a small amount.

7. You Complain Rather Than Commit

“I don’t earn enough money”; “Life is too expensive”; “It’s hopeless, I’ll never get out of debt.” Have you uttered any of these statements before, or perhaps all of them? Old habits die hard; however, as long as you do nothing to change, nothing will change. Stop complaining and making excuses. Instead, take responsibility for your non-productive habits and concentrate on how to change them – and then do it!

8. You Live for Today, and Forget About Tomorrow

It’s no fun getting serious and thinking about retirement and all that stuff. Nonetheless, eventually it has to be done. The problem is that impulsive and unregulated spending leads to debt… period! Do yourself a big favor: Get rid of the ‘buy now, worry later’ attitude, and switch to a ‘save now, get rich later’ way of thinking.

9. Putting All Your Eggs in One Basket

You might get lucky by wagering all your money on one type of investment. Just like you might get lucky winning the lottery. But that’s not a strategy to live by, or for getting rich. Putting all your money in one place is not advised because it puts you at too much risk. Your investment portfolio should include multiple investments with varied levels of risk and ROI potential and liquidity.

10. You Just Don’t Get It!

You may be one of those people who believe that somehow something will come along and save you, so why bother with saving or trying to get out of debt? Maybe you will get lucky and land a fantastic job, receive a big pay raise, inherit money, hit the lottery, or whatever! But ‘whatever’ won’t cut it if you really want to become rich. Yes, life is uncertain. No one knows what will, or will not, actually happen; therefore, why not focus on what you can control today? Get it together now and save yourself, in case someone or something else won’t.

One thing you can be sure of: You are already rich. Think about it. If someone came to you and offered you a million dollars for your arm, would you give it up? Why not, you have two; you can surely spare one of them! Of course the answer would be no! Being rich is more than physical ownership; it’s a state of happiness and well-being, while wishing the same for others. So while you are working on getting rich materially, remember to be happy along the way!

Assalamualaikum wbh kepada semua pedagang-pedagang mata wang dan komoditi. Di bawah ini satu artikel yang cukup menarik oleh Pratama bagaimana menerapkan strategi Sun Tzu dalam berdagang mata wang dan komoditi. Semoga bermanfaat.

Sekitar 250 tahun yang lalu, Sun Tzu, seorang jendral besar, master strategi dan taktik perang dari China menulis filosofi perangnya dalam suatu tulisan yang berjudul “The Art of War”. Di dalamnya berisi prinsip-prinsip simpel namun sangat vital untuk memenangkan suatu perang. Mungkin bila saat itu Sun Tzu terlahir sebagai trader, dia akan menjadi seorang trader yang hebat.

Dewasa ini, para veteran trader di Wall Street menggunakan teknik filosofi perang Sun Tzu untuk menghasilkan profit dalam berinvestasi forex dan komoditi.

The Art of Trading
Dalam suatu chapter dari tulisan “the Art of War” ada suatu prinsip yang disorot dan diinterpretasikan oleh kalangan trader di Wall Street untuk digunakan sebagai prinsip vital dalam forex trading, index trading ataupun komoditas gold trading dan oil trading.

Berikut adalah interpretasi strategi Sun Tzu yang diterapkan menjadi suatu prinsip trading :

I am the general, commander of my forces. As general, I am responsible for understanding where the market has been (trend lines), it’s strength (bull, bear or sideways) and on what ground it is in at any point in time (Asia, London, New York).

The general starts all the engagements with the enemy, EURO/USD or GBP/USD, Gold or OIl. The time and place is based on his interpretation of the information that he has gathered before hand. The preparations for this engagement include gauging the strength of the opponent’s moves, volatility, and direction of movements: long and short term trends.

He also chooses a strategy (buy or sell, long or short term) and asset commitments.
All this he ponders in his temple. When the plans are made, he waits for the enemy to provide an opening and the starts the battle.

Once a battle has started, the general will modify his plans to account for movements of the enemy (price action, changes of ground).

The general will practice responding to enemy movements, honing his skills both in battle and in the practice field.

This general is a guerrilla fighter. He does not have the resources to go head to head with the enemy. The fight is always on the flanks and is not able to see the full strength of the enemy, but can feel the effects of the enemy’s movements instantly and must be able adjust his adjust his attack using discipline and methods learned in battle and instruction.

Bila diterjemahkan ke dalam bahasa indonesia dari sisi seorang trader,

Trader adalah seorang jendral, seorang komandan dari dana yang dia tradingkan. Sebagai seorang jendral, trader bertanggung jawab menentukan strategi trading untuk memahami dimana market forex sekarang ini (trend lines), kekuatan market forex sekarang ini (bull, bear atau sideways) dan kawasan medan perang tempat saya bertempur (sesi market Asia, London atau New York).

Untuk mendukung strategi trading yang digunakan, seorang trader harus terlebih dahulu mempersiapkan segala kebutuhan sebelum menyerang musuh (pair forex, Gold atau Oil), waktu dan tempat medan perang berdasarkan segala informasi (news kalender ekonomi atau isu-isu market yang beredar) dan interpretasi dari informasi tersebut. Persiapan perang ini termasuk didalamnya mengukur kekuatan gerakan musuh, volatilitas dan arah dari gerakan musuh (short term atau long term trend).

Seorang trader membuat suatu strategi trading (buy atau sell, long term atau short term trading) dan margin trading dari dana yang digunakan (money management). Setelah semua data dan prediksi yang telah dibuat, trader menunggu pergerakan chart suatu pair untuk menentukan titik open posisi yang tepat, misalnya buy / sell di saat terjadi koreksi.

Ketika open posisi telah dibuat, trader mengamati perkembangan open posisi trading yang telah dibuat. Trader harus selalu siap untuk merubah arah open posisi trading atau melakukan cut loss berdasarkan perkembangan dan pergerakan chart trading yang terjadi.

Seorang trader adalah pejuang kecil. Trader tidak memiliki jumlah dana yang besar untuk bisa melawan kekuatan market forex ataupun melawan institusi besar seperti Bank Central. Apa yang trader bisa lakukan adalah membaca gelagat yang “diberikan” oleh market forex itu sendiri, mengintepretasikannya dengan cepat dan mengimplementasikannya ke dalam posisi trading yang sedang berjalan berdasarkan disiplin money management dan strategi trading yang dipakai.

Intisari
Kebijaksanaan yang tertuang dalam literatur tulisan Sun Tzu memberikan kita segala aspek strategi trading yang mencakup sisi psikologis trading dan money management yang trader butuhkan.

Seperti salah satu ungkapan Sun Tzu :

“Kenali musuhmu dan kenali diri sendiri, maka anda dapat memenangkan pertempuran tanpa risiko kalah. Kenali bumi dan langit, maka kemenangan tersebut akan menjadi lengkap.”

Ungkapan tersebut tidak hanya cocok sebagai prinsip strategi perang tetapi dapat juga diaplikasikan sebagai prinsip strategi trading kita.

Kesuksesan suatu pertempuran bergantung kepada sejauh mana kita mengerti tingkah laku dan kebiasaan musuh, kekuatan psikologis serta kekuatan sumber daya kita. Semuanya dirangkum menjadi suatu “Art of Trading” yang vital dan menjadi pedoman trading bagi semua trader untuk meraih profit.

Sudah siapkah anda menjadi seorang jendral?

SUn Tzu Forex

Sun Tzu"s Art of War Provides The Solution To Your Trading Blues

Sun Tzu's Art of War provides a key solution to successful battle, which can be extrapolated to Forex trading.

Sun Tzu's Art of War called it: "Know Your Enemy"

And your enemy in Forex trading is merely the Forex market itself and you- the person itself.

To win in the Forex market, you must know the Forex market itself - in other words, you must get to understand the currency-pairs that you are trading on. Spend time to study their price movements.

Know what trading patterns and setups occur time and again in those currency-pairs. Be familiar with the risk-reward ratios of each specific trade pattern for those currency-pairs you are trading. Define and apply a specific trading strategy for those currency-pairs you trade. Know when to enter and exit the market and when to stay away. The best way to ensure you are doing it correctly is to get another experienced and successful trader to mentor or to show you the ropes. Budget to learn before you trade.

As to the other part of the battle, you need to see the part of you, yourself who is the enemy. Forex trading involves decision making where your risk tolerance is put to the test, where emotions of greed and fear will play a daily tug of war within your heart. The solution to win this emotional battle is to trade with discipline. Adopting a winning strategy, a winning plan complete with risk management and ensuring you do not deviate from that plan is a necessity for you to win. 

Artikel yang ditulis oleh Mark Thomas, the Silver Price Advisor yang bertajuk Twenty Reasons to Buy Silver for the Long-Term pada hari khamis 27 Disember 2012 di Wealth Wire perlu diambil perhatian yang serius oleh pedagang silver jika ingin berjaya sebagai pedagang profesional.

  

I believe that silver could go to $60 per ounce from today’s price of just $30 by the end of 2014. That would be double from today’s current prices in just a little over two years! I also believe silver will be the best single investment of this decade. The following article is focused on why I think that you should seriously consider having a significant percentage of your investment portfolio in silver.

Many gold investors deride silver as the "poor man's gold" because of its low relative price to gold. They also don't like the fact that it because it is used primarily as an industrial metal it can be negatively affected by a cyclical downturn in the economy. This is opposite of gold which is viewed almost entirely as a precious metal. Many years ago, the silver market was so oversupplied because there were huge artificial inventories of silver. This was because the US took currency (coins) out of circulation due to its physical silver content. Because of this artificial situation, huge surpluses hung over the market until these excess inventories were depleted. This led to silver prices crashing as low as $2 and then traded around $5 for years. Because silver had so decoupled from the price of gold during this period, it began to be thought of as just another industrial metal and not a precious metal.

There are still skeptics who think of silver as just another industrial metal. 

However after a 600% rise in price from $5 to $30 since 2003, it has begun again to be viewed as a precious metal. I think that silver has only completed about fifty percent of that process. As this transformation continues there will be additional significant moves higher in price. That will attract more investors to silver again until it once again retains its true status as a precious metal.

1) The amount of silver consumed annually and bought for investment exceeds currently exceeds total annual mining output and has for years. That gap has been filled by sellers willing to sell from existing inventories and as prices rise. As time passes this will naturally push prices significantly higher until this fundamental imbalance reaches a true equilibrium price where supply is closer to demand.

2) Both industrial and investment demand for silver is growing in excess of the annual increase in mining production growth. The available inventory is low and will get even tighter over time. These two factors will lead to a continued tighter supply-demand situation going forward. 

3) The lower price of silver at $32 appeals more broadly to small investors relative to the more expensive gold at $1705, especially if gold prices continue to rise.

4) Most silver is not found in mining sites in any significant concentrated form. It is usually chemically bound to other metals; much of it is actually the byproduct of mining for lead, copper, etc. In the last few decades this made it less attractive from a profitability standpoint to invest in pure silver mine. Now prices have finally recovered enough to make new projects feasible again. So there is new investment in the sector but it is a lengthy multi-year process to bring on significant new production. 

5) The last time silver was found in huge concentrations or veins that dramatically affected the amount available and therefore significantly lowered prices was in the Comstock Lode in Nevada in the late 1800's. The Comstock Lode produced tons of ore that was very pure with concentrations of 25-50% silver. Silver mines today have much lower concentrations, usually always less than two ounces per ton of refined ore.

6) Silver is the most conductive metal on earth. Gold is also conductive but is prohibitively expensive due to its much higher price for most industrial uses compared to silver.

7) Silver is an industrial metal with over 10,000 commercial applications. Because it is one of the best electrical and thermal conductors, that makes it ideal for electrical uses such as switches, multi-layer ceramic capacitors, conductive adhesives, and contacts. It is used in some brazing and soldering as well. Silver is also used in solar cells, heated automobile wind shields, DVD's and some mirrors.

8) Silver is an essential element in the electronic gadgets that are a growing part of our digital age. It is in every cell phone, smart phone, tablet, computer keyboard, solar cells and every radio frequency if ID device (RFID). This makes it an essential element going forward as the world becomes more addicted to gadgets. The growth and rising living standards of people in the emerging economies will drive long-term growth of new customers that will demand more and more electronic gadgets.

9) Silver's industrial demand should increase 60% to 666 million ounces per year by 2016 from 487 million ounces in 2010. Current annual mine production is only around 700 million ounces per year growing a few percent annually.

10) Of a total of fifty billion ounces of silver that have been mined in history, only two ounces (estimate) or 5% remain in above ground inventories available to be bought and sold. This is due to silver being used up in industrial applications in very small quantities, which makes it unprofitable to recycle at today's prices. A lot of silver is used in minute quantities in industrial products which are used up and discarded without being recycled.

11) This is unlike gold where five billion ounces have been mined and two and half billion ounces (estimate) are still available in all inventory. Since gold is hardly ever discarded because of its very high price, used mainly in jewelry or for investment purposes, the total inventory is so much larger than silver.

12) The supply demand equilibrium in silver is extremely tight. There is now less than one year of inventory of silver, compared to over eleven years of inventory in the 1970’s.

13) Exchange Traded Funds (mainly SLV, SGOL, PSLV, and CEF) have opened precious metals investing in silver to millions of investors around the globe. When investor make net new purchases, the ETF purchases physical silver and removes it from the available market, which increases the scarcity of available supply. This is the first time many investors worldwide are not required to actually buy physical silver bullion and coins and store it themselves. Now they have an investment vehicle that offers liquidity and ease of trading to get exposure to precious metals.

14) Silver also has many medicinal applications. Roman soldiers long ago noticed that if water is kept in silver cups, it wouldn’t become stagnant. Today silver in "colloidal" form is used as a broad spectrum antibiotic. It can be used in bandages to treat burn victim's wounds and also in colloidal form actually swallowed to target microorganisms in one's gut. It is also used in water purification systems.

15) The US Dollar has lost 31% of its purchasing power just since 2000. The dollar has lost a staggering 82% of its value since the US was taken off the gold standard in 1971. Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the US dollar has lost 95.6% of its purchasing power. When you compare the historical appreciation and more importantly, the retention of real purchasing power of precious metals versus the dollar in those same time frames, those facts alone should convince you that significant exposure in precious metals is necessary to protect your wealth. The primary and overarching reason you should have a significant percentage of your investment assets in precious metals is simple: to protect the real purchasing power of your accumulated wealth! In this age of government's abusing their privilege of excessively printing currency, on a magnitude and scale not seen for decades, only gold and silver can protect and actually grow your wealth.

16) Gold and silver are such unique elements with so many uncommon properties. Therefore the chance of a gold or silver substitute being developed is almost impossible. It hasn't happened in thousands of years and it probably never will. That is what makes them exclusive; they can't be printed, manufactured or copied. They can only be mined, purchased from a willing seller of the world's existing inventory and from recycling.

17) Unlike an account at a bank, a dollar bill or a bond, these are all both an asset and liability to counterparty. This includes every other financial instrument and derivative man has created in history. Precious metals are the only asset class with no counterparty risk if you have physical or very secure possession. They will always retain some value and can’t go to zero like any other investment.

18) The total amount of silver available to trade in the physical silver market is only about $70 billion versus the total gold market which now exceeds $4.3 trillion. As you can see from these numbers, the total market size of the silver market is only 1.6% of the size of the entire gold market. This lack of liquidity and use of extreme leverage in its respective futures market produces wild volatility in price fluctuations of silver.

19) The total gold market is sixty one times the size of the silver market yet. As interest in silver increases this sets up a situation where prices could soar higher.

20) Since World War II, the US government has sold over five billion ounces of silver and currently has no reported stores. Now that vast stockpiles are gone, the supply demand equation has changed dramatically.