Friday, December 12, 2014

Realiti ekonomi negara pada 2014 dan 2015

Isu Kepemimpinan: 

Bekas Ketua Pengarang Kumpulan New Straits Times Press (NSTP), Datuk A Kadir Jasin mahu menasihatkan kerajaan agar berterus-terang kepada rakyat mengenai realiti ekonomi negara pada masa ini.

Cakap Benar Mengenai Ekonomi DALAM siri isu kepemimpinan kali ini, marilah kita berbincang sedikit mengenai ekonomi semasa. 

Tajuk ini mungkin berat tetapi sangat afdal kepada kelangsungan (survival) negara kita. Saya tidak menyalahkan pemerintah dan media massa kawalannya kerana menghebahkan berita baik dan menguar-uarkan prestasi ekonomi yang dikatakan baik sehingga mendapat pujian pemimpin dunia. Saya akui bahawa angka kasar menunjukkan ekonomi kita sihat. Pertumbuhannya jika diukur daripada keluaran dalam negara kasar (KDNK/GDP) adalah memuaskan.  Tetapi angka kasar boleh memesongkan. Misalnya, banyak rumah, kedai dan ruang pejabat didirikan. Pembinaan rumah, kedai dan pejabat yang banyak itu menyumbang kepada pertumbuhan KDNK. Tauke simen, pasir dan keluli buat duit. Perunding dalam dan luar negara buat duit. Pekerja binaan Indonesia, Bangladesh, India dan Myanmar buat duit. Penjaja nasi lemak Melayu di bahu jalan pun buat duit. Tetapi kita juga tahu dan lihat banyak rumah, kedai dan pejabat tidak dijual atau disewakan, tidak didiami dan digunakan. Ada yang ditenggelami lalang, ditumbuhi pokok jejawi atau roboh terus. Iklan untuk dijual dan disewa menyakitkan mata. Inilah yang ahli ekonomi sebut sebagai pertumbuhan yang tidak berkualiti atau penyalahuntukan sumber (misallocation of resources). Bila rumah, kedai dan ruang pejabat tidak digunakan maka tidak berlakulah penokokan nilai (value added) dan kesan serapan (trickle down effect). Kalau rumah dijual dan didiami, kedai disewa dan perniagaan dijalankan, pejabat dibuk dan kakitangan diambil barulah berlaku penokokan nilai dan kesan serapan. 

Tidak salah Menteri Kewangan Kedua, Ahmad Husni Hazadlah, menyatakan keyakinan yang matlamat mengurangkan defisit belanjawan 2014 kepada 3.5% KDNK masih boleh dicapai walaupun harga minyak jatuh teruk. Begitu jugalah kenyataan Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif CIMB, Tengku Zafrul Aziz, bahawa asas ekonomi (economic fundamentals) negara terus kukuh dan Pengarah Eksekutif Institut Kajian Ekonomi Malaysia (MIER), Dr Zakariah Abdul Rashid, melihat prospeks ekonomi sebagai bercampur (mixed). Malangnya, bukan harga minyak mentah saja jatuh. Harga minyak kelapa sawit dan getah sudah lama merudum. Permintaan ke atas komponen elektronik masih kukuh. 

Tetapi dengan ekonomi dunia diramalkan beku tahun hadapan, permintaan mungkin tidak kekal. Petronas telah pun mengurangkan perbelanjaan modal (capex) dan memberi amaran mungkin tidak boleh membayar dividen yang tinggi kepada kerajaan. Tetapi kalau dipaksa, Petronas akan tambah dividen dan  kurangkan lagi capex. Kredibiliti Maklumat Rasmi Soalnya, bolehkah kita percayai dakwaan bahawa fundamental ekonomi kita kukuh apabila bukan saja harga komoditi utama kita jatuh malah kadar tukaran mata wang kita pun jatuh juga? Sangat mengelirukan apabila Gabenor Bank Negara, Zeti Aktar Aziz, berkata bagus apabila nilai ringgit naik dan bagus juga apabila ia jatuh. Harga saham dan jumlah dagangan di Bursa Malaysia semakin menurun. Prestasi syarikat-syarikat yang disenaraikan dengannya lebih banyak yang negatif daripada positif. Boleh kata majoriti melaporkan penurunan keuntungan. Pada 1 Disember, kadar tukaran ringgit jatuh paling banyak dalam sehari sejak Krisis Kewangan Asia 1997-98 kepada RMRM3.4320 bagi satu dolar Amerika. 

Pada 3 Disember, akhbar The Star (milik MCA dan mewakili sentimen masyarakat perniagaan Cina) menyiarkan analisis pendapatan suku ketiga tahun ini (Julai-September) bagi syarikat-syarikat Bursa Malaysia. Ia mendapati hanya dua daripada lima sektor utama ekonomi meningkat. Automotif naik 18.2% dan Perbankan 1.6% tetapi perkhidmatan jatuh 58.5%, Komoditi jatuh 37.7% dan Minyak&Gas jatuh 29.3%. Perkhidmatan menyumbang lebih daripada 50% kepada kegiatan ekonomi negara. Pada 4 Disember akhbar yang sama menyiarkan analisis prestasi mata wang ringgit. Ia mendapati ringgit jatuh berbanding kebanyakan mata wang rakan perdagangan utama kita. Ringgit jatuh 5.61% berbanding dolar Amerika, 5.58% berbanding dolar Hong Kong, 3.93% berbanding baht, 2.93% berbanding rupee, 2.44% berbanding dolar Taiwan dan 0.95% berbansing dolar Singapura. Duit kita naik berbanding Yen (9.40%), Euro (5.91%), dolar Australia (4.32%), pound Inggeris (2.31%) dan rupiah (0.73%). The Star juga meramalkan yang kelembapan eksport mungkin mengakibatkan Malaysia mengalami defisit kembar (twin deficit) iaitu defisit akaun semasa dan defisit perdagangan. Ia memetik ketua ahli ekonomi AllianceDBS (bank), Manokaran Mottain. 

Lebih Baik Terus Terang Banyak lagi fakta dan ramalan ekonomi yang menjurus ke arah keadaan yang sukar dan mencabar bagi ekonomi negara tahun ini dan tahun hadapan. Ekonomi Eropah diramalkan menguncup tahun hadapan. Ekonomi Australia sudah mula menurun. Hatta ekonomi China yang perkasa itu pun sudah mula dingin. Jadi, bukankah lebih elok bagi kerajaan mengakui realiti semasa dan berterus terang kepada rakyat jelata. Lebih baik membuatkan mereka kurang gembira dengan menyatakan kebenaran daripada membuatkan mereka marah apabila malapetaka ekonomi melanda mereka. Sama ada ekonomi kita akan mengalami krisis atau tidak tahun hadapan, satu hal. Itulah yang sedang diramalkan oleh pembangkang pusat. Yang utama sekarang adalah berkongsi maklumat secara rasional dan terbuka dengan rakyat jelata. Bukan berdolak-dalik dengan mereka apatah lagi memesongkan mereka dengan berita-berita baik yang sengaja diada-adakan. Rakyat tidak “bangang”. Mereka tahu “practical economy.” Mereka sudah rasa kenaikan harga akibat pemansuhan subsidi. Mereka tahu harga petrol turun tapi harga diesel naik. Mereka rasa pelik. GST belum dilaksanakan tetapi sudah ada barang yang naik harga kononnya kerana cukai baru itu. Mereka tahu harga getah dan kelapa sawit merudum kerana mereka yang mengeluarkannya. Mereka tahu ringgit Malaysia tidak bernilai seperti dulu lagi kerana hari-hari mereka beli-belah sendiri. Jangan tunggu mereka marah. Terus teranglah dengan mereka. Jangan sekali-kali anggap mereka bangang, bodoh, dungu, tongong dan bahlul. 


Friday, November 28, 2014



A Trick to Successful Trading?

Every Successful Investor Does It. Every Failed Investor Overlooks It.


By 
Monday, November 24th, 2014
Last year, I spent about two months in Miami, living and working within spitting distance of one of the most famous coastlines in the world — populated by the wealthiest and most ostentatious group of foreign ex-pats found anywhere.
My neighborhood was Sunny Isles, an enclave on the northern end of Dade County characterized by futuristic high-rise condos, pristine beaches, and an endless procession of exotic cars running up and down the coastal strip of Collins Avenue like a mobile auto show.
sunnyisles
The two major demographics in Sunny Isles are Russian and Brazilian, with native-born Americans coming in third at about 13%.
Regardless of nationality, however, the one unifying factor among most everyone who lived on that section of beach was, of course, wealth.
Aside from the overt, sometimes over-the-top ritziness, places that concentrate wealth also tend to concentrate unusual personalities.
Over the seven years that I've been visiting that somewhat strange, somewhat surreal part of the world, I've made a lot of friends, but there's one in particular whose wisdom I keep going back to in my mind.
When I first met him last fall, I didn't really make much of him.
He's Russian-born, just like me, but he didn't arrive in the U.S. until the '90s, when he was already in his 20s.
My cousin, who lived in downtown Miami at the time, brought me to a pier at the famous Marina Del Mar at around 2 p.m.
marina
He'd been trying to get me to meet this mysterious "Grisha" (Russian diminutive for Gregory) for weeks and grew more excited the closer we got to the slip.
And I admit, when I saw the gleaming, 88-foot twin-masted sailboat he brought me to, I had to stop and take it in for a moment.
Two summers ago, I spent a week sailing a 45-foot catamaran around the Aeolian Islands off of Sicily. Our boat was nice, but this thing was in a whole different class.
Walking onboard this beast, I thought it was deserted until I noticed a single, shirtless body laying face-up in the shade on a padded bench just off to the side of the wheel.
He was about 5'6" and tanned like he'd just spent a year marooned on a treeless island. As we approached him, he was immediately jarred awake and sat up.
Judging by the empty tumbler beside his sleeping arrangement, he'd been into the vodka sodas, and judging by the ashtray beside that tumbler, he wasn't afraid of some full-strength Marlboro Reds, either.
So I figured he was another rich nitwit with more money than brains and not an idea in the world of what to do with himself.
Don't Judge a Book By its Shirtless Cover
That couldn't have been further from the truth.
Inside this day drinker was the soul of a real entrepreneur.
You see, Grisha had started off as a self-taught investor right around the time online trading came around.
In fact, one of his very first trades was in E-Trade itself in the first half of 1998.
Shares of E-Trade got to reap the benefits of both the rapid acceptance of online brokerage accounts and the dot-com bubble — which was going into exponential expansion.
etrade
Grisha sold his shares less than a year later for a 1,000% gain — and just in time, too.
Within a few months, the bubble had popped, sending everything back down to Earth.
He rolled those earnings into several more development-stage companies, and by the time the Dow was hitting its pre-recession peaks in 2007, Grisha had a liquid net worth well into the eight-figure range.
As he told me over multiple Ketel One and sodas that afternoon, he's been lucky twice in his trading career...
The moment he entered the market, right as Internet revolution was going manic, and the moment he exited, right before the real estate bubble pulled the national economy into a death spiral.
Everything in between, however — where he made a vast majority of his money — came from good, old-fashioned diligence and persistence.
Words to Remember
The most concise piece of advice anybody's ever given me on the subject of trading came from his lips when he said, “It's not how much you make on each trade — it's how much you don't lose.”
It sounds a little counterintuitive, I know, but here's what he meant — and mind you, this is advice worth billions in the right hands:
Given enough time, a scientific, thoroughly analytical trader will always win.
His wording was a bit flipped around, but what he meant by "not losing" was being able to stay in the game long enough to win big.
It's the same principal on which casinos rake in billions each year. The house's odds of winning any individual game or contest are just a few percentage points (sometimes just fractions of a percentage point) better than the player.
In trading, that means you only need two variables in place to wind up on top: a slight statistical advantage and a long enough timeline.
There is no trick to it at all... And anyone who tells you they have a trick or a system or an algorithm that guarantees victory is full of it.
The only way you can succeed as a trader, whether it's a full-time job or just something you do for fun and maybe some extra pocket change, is to consistently make trades with more than half a chance of succeeding.

Math, Not Magic
The diligence part comes in finding that edge — because in the world of investing, macro variables like recessions, poor political climate, and market bubbles can lower the chance of even a seemingly safe blue-chip investment below that 50% mark.
To isolate the highest-probability winners, you need to filter out the dead and the dying prospects and go only for those with great return and growth potential.
Some will fail, but over a sufficient period, the gains will stack up, compound, and put a trader on a path similar to Grisha's.
Ironically, when Grisha moved out of the stock market, he moved into private equity — or venture capitalism, which, statistically, is far more risky than your average public microcap stock.
He applied the same principles to that, and the result... well, the result was spending a Saturday working off an early afternoon hangover with follow-up drinks onboard a $4 million toy.
That day bled into the evening, and at night, as more people joined us and meaningful conversation on wealth creation decayed into the usual mixture of small talk and overly boisterous laughter, things got a bit blurry.
Grisha and I became fast friends, and in the months that followed, he told me lots of other stories, but it was that first, elegant reflection that sticks out:
“It's not how much you make — it's how much you don't lose.”
Trade long enough, and if you're good, you'll win.
It's a principal that's as universal to successful investors as the quest for torque is to drag racers, and it doesn't take a strange eccentric like Grisha to typify it.
A Common Thread Among the Elites
Just about every successful investor I know follows the same philosophy.
Even the most famous of them all, Warren Buffett, has followed the exact same pattern of consistently seeking out that seemingly narrow edge through his years of trades.
Now, the concept is simple. But getting that edge... well, that's where it gets complicated.
Again, there is no system, no trick. The only method that works is to brush away the useless, dead, and dying and go with the best of what's left.
Every trader has his own specific method for vetting the winners from the average and sub-average outfits, but some of the essential variables are universal.
Two Pieces of the Puzzle
When it comes to microcap stocks — the fastest-moving variety there is outside of private equity — you can remove a majority of the field just by filtering based on two requirements:
Profit margin and dividends.
A weak or nonexistent profit margin means the business model is either unestablished or questionable.
A dividend for a microcap is nothing but a poor allocation of earnings. Small companies need to reinvest in growth, not trickle profits away to their shareholders.
And the shareholders should thank them for it.
Eliminate based on those two metrics alone, and your battle in finding companies with a better-than-average chance of succeeding is already more than halfway done.
But to really make it, you need to take it further.
Again, there is no trick or system to guarantee success, but there is a way for you to minimize the risk down to almost complete insignificance.
Apply this to a breed of stocks that produces triple-digit returns on a routine basis, and success on a level you've probably not allowed yourself to imagine can be within reach.
It's been a long-time goal of mine to distill this method into a few simple rules.
Just last month, I believe I finally hit the nail on the head, as I broke it down into just five basic steps every microcap investor needs to accept to gain that essential edge.
I've already hinted at two of those rules when I mentioned profit margins and dividends... But to get the full picture, you'll need some details.
I've put together a report that not only explains everything but also provides some great examples of what happens when this methodology is put to use.
You'll be amazed at what people with little or no previous trading experience have accomplished.

Sunday, November 16, 2014

How to Win Consistently in Forex Trading


Most people will think that success in Forex trading depends entirely on the system or trading strategy you use. In truth, it doesn’t. What it actually depends on, the foundation upon which true success as a trader is built is your mindset and psychology – how you think and feel about the market and how you react to it.
Forex websites trying to sell some indicator or robot-based trading system won’t tell you this, because they want you to believe in their products and that you can make money with them. That’s the source of most of the stories you hear about people who attempt Forex trading and lose money. They come into the market with unrealistic expectations, such as thinking they are going to quit their jobs after a month of trading or thinking they are going to turn $1,000 into $100,000 in a few months. They create a mindset that pressures them with the need to make money and end up trading emotionally – the fastest way to LOSE your money.
I have a friend that says, “I’m not here to be your friend. A friend will tell you what you want to hear. I’m here to be your BEST friend, someone who will tell you what you NEED to hear.” While it is very important to have an effective and uncomplicated trading strategy, it is even more important to manage your emotions around your trades. You need both to experience long-term success in trading.
Before you even start thinking about trading and risking your hard earned money, before we even start discussing strategy, if you feel you want to explore trading as a means of growing your income and wealth portfolio, you need to enter the market with the right mindset.
Discipline
The first thing you need to understand is that trading is a discipline. It is a long-term game of probabilities, you will win some trades, you will lose on some trades, but as long as you a disciplined enough to stick to your trading strategy, to not be emotionally attached to your losses, or worse your wins, you will tend to make more winning trades than losing trades and nett a profit.
Mastery
You need to know what your trading strategy is and you need to master it. You have to know it inside and out and have absolutely no doubts or questions about that the market needs to look like before you risk your money in a trade. You have to become a “sniper.” Once the market conditions match your strategy criteria, you place your trade, without the fear holding you back.
Risk Management
You always, ALWAYS manage your risk on EVERY single trade. The moment you loosen your control over your trades, you allow emotion to creep in and before you know it, you’re in a downward spiral of emotional Forex trading and losing trades. Only risk the money you are prepared to lose in every trade. In fact, you should go in expecting to lose on any given trade so that you’re constantly aware of the very real possibility of it happening.
Plan
You need to be very organized. Have a trading plan and journal to track your trades consistently. Think of Forex trading as a business rather than placing a bet in a casino. Invest with your calculator and not your heart, stay calm in your dealings with the market.
Again, keeping your Forex trading mindset right is the outcome of always taking a conscious effort to practice, manage, and control your emotions when it comes to trading.
Marcus de Maria
https://www.srpl.net/how-to-win-consistently-in-forex-trading/

Saturday, October 4, 2014

Main Factors That Influence Exchange Rates



The exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country's relative level of economic health. It plays a vital role in trade, which is critical to most free market economies. But exchange rates matter on a smaller scale too. They even impact the real return of an investor's portfolio.  Here we’ll look at the main factors influencing exchange rates.
Factor 1: Differentials in Inflation.  As a general rule, a country with a consistently lower inflation rate exhibits a rising currency value, as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies. Those countries with higher inflation typically see depreciation in their currency's value in relation to the currencies of their trading partners.
Factor 2: Differentials in Interest Rates. By manipulating interest rates, central banks exert influence over both inflation and exchange rates.  Higher interest rates offer lenders a higher return relative to other countries. The impact of higher interest rates is mitigated, however, if a country's inflation is much higher than other countries', or if additional factors serve to drive their currency value down. The opposite relationship exists for decreasing interest rates.
Factor 3: Current-Account Deficits.  The current account is the balance of trade between a country and its trading partners, reflecting all payments between countries for goods, services, interest and dividends. A deficit in the current account shows a country is importing goods and services more than it isexporting them. The country will then typically borrow capital from foreign sources to make up the deficit, causing its currency to depreciate relative to its trading partner. 
Factor 4: Public Debt.  Countries will engage in large-scale deficit financing to pay for public sector projects using governmental funding. While such activity stimulates the domestic economy, nations with large public deficits and debts are less attractive to foreign investors. This is because a large debt encourages more inflation, and higher inflation translates into lower currency value.
Factor 5: Terms of Trade. A country's terms of trade is a ratio comparing export prices to import prices. If the price of a country's exports rises by a greater rate than that of its imports, its terms of trade have favorably improved, which tends to show currency appreciation.  However, if the price of a country's importsrises more than the rate of exports, their currency's value will decrease in relation to trading partners.
Factor 6: Political Stability and Economic Performance.  Foreign investors inevitably seek out stable countries with strong economic performance in which to invest their capital. Political turmoil, for example, can cause a loss of confidence in a currency, and a movement of capital to the currencies of more stable countries.
The return of a portfolio that holds currency is affected by that currency's exchange rate. Moreover, the exchange rate is highly correlated to other income factors, such as interest rates, inflation and even capital gains from domestic securities.

http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/main-factors-influence-exchange-rates/?utm_source=forex-free&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=FXWeekly-10/4/2014



Sunday, September 21, 2014

Billionaire Says Silver Is Still the Investment of the Decade

After silver's recent fall, a rare scenario has formed that can only be called...
Silver's "Doubling Effect"
Because of this phenomenon...
Every time silver gains 1%.. you make 2%.

A 25% gain pays 50%... A 100% gain pays 200%!
But you'd better hurry. The price of silver may
very soon super-spike higher than $237/oz.

Dear Reader,
What I'm about to share with you is no coincidence.
It's not a temporary trend, either.
Instead, it's a moneymaking development so powerful that our team of researchers spent the past eight months investigating it... just to make sure it was real.
Take a look and you'll see why:
tcn-silver-double-charts1-2
First, let me say that these charts are NOT duplicates. The one on the left represents the closing price of physical silver over the past few months. The one on the right is the investment we're following extremely closely.
Now, at first they appear virtually identical...
And they should. One is directly based on the other.
But that's where the similarities end.
How so?
Just check out the two charts again — only this time, with gains attached:
tcn-silver-double-charts3-4
From June 27 through August 27, 2013, physical silver prices soared 32.2%.
But the diamond in the rough we uncovered soared an astonishing 71.2% — more than doubling the gains silver attained!
I know, it looks crazy.
In fact, when we first heard about this opportunity, we couldn't believe it, either...
(Scratch that — we thought our source had been drinking a little too much Maker's Mark.)
After all, how could an investment exist that is directly related to silver prices...
That pays you DOUBLE the gains silver makes?
A 25% gain pays you 50%... a 50% gain doubles your money... and so on!
It seems completely illogical.
And that's why we kept this discovery under wraps... until now.
You see, before we could show you an opportunity this powerful, we needed to know exactly what we had.
We also needed to know how and when would be the best time for hungry investors like you to start taking advantage of it...
Today, that's exactly what I'm prepared to show you.

How Capitol Hill Could Make You Filthy Rich
Imagine for a moment that you knew about certain factors — already in place — that would cause the price of silver to start skyrocketing as soon as next month...
Even better, you knew you were facing a "bottom" in silver prices, and that this imminent surge could last a couple of years.
Taking advantage of this one-of-a-kind investment at the right time, you'd be able to ride the coming wave and easily collect a fortune — safely pulling in twice the gains silver makes.
The best part is, unlike other investors who are buying expensive futures contracts or taking delivery of physical silver, you don't need a lot of money to get started...
In fact, you can begin collecting "The Doubling Effect" with as little as $25.
All you need to know is when.
And, thanks to the boys on the Hill, we don't have to look for any crazy trends around the corner, pore through complicated computer models, or rely on overpaid, so-called "experts" to tell you when silver prices are going to surge.
The truth is all you have to do is thank two separate trillion-dollar wars, the printing of $1 trillion per year in "free money," and a national debt that is now hovering around $17 trillion.
In fact, it's because of the Federal Reserve's last-ditch efforts to keep the U.S. economy afloat that we're now staring straight at the largest inflationary period in years.
And it'll blow wide open... as soon as January!
You see, broke Uncle Sam doesn't really have the cash on hand for this unprecedented funding. And if you think for a second that every single employed American (and there aren't many of them these days) is going to be taxed additional thousands each year to pay for it — in an already stretched-thin economy — think again...
In reality, every dollar the Fed has printed has made all dollars worth less.
After all, the more of something there is, the less value it has. That's inflation.
And with as much Monopoly Money as we've printed, an inflationary shockwave is sure to sweep across the entire nation.
As I'm sure you know, when there's inflation — even the rumor of inflation — silver prices do something beautiful...
They skyrocket.
And the proof that silver's already revving its engine is all around us:
  • In August, UBS reported that global central bank precious metal buying was "substantially higher" than in previous months, with over half a million pounds purchased in July alone.
  • Investors seeking safer investments are buying so much physical silver that bullion dealers as well as producers can't keep up. The U.S. Mint has set several sales records this year.
  • Consumer demand for silver is at its highest level ever, and 2013 silver sales will set an all-time record.
And that's just in the short term.
I haven't even shown you why...

History Will Repeat:
Silver Prices Could Super Spike to $237... 
Making You a Massive Fortune Along the Way!
Right now, silver sells for around $25 an ounce.
But current factors at play — happening this very moment — could soon make the $25 mark look like pocket change.
With the investment tool we uncovered, if silver doubles in price to $50, you'll make 200%.
That turns every $1,000 you invest into $2,000.
For reasons I'm about to show you, though, you could soon reap much more than that...
At the beginning of this century, you would've laughed in my face if I told you silver would soon shoot up over 1,000%.
Silver traded below $8.00 for virtually all of the 1990s.
In 2001, silver's price spent long stretches below $4.20 an ounce. And it languished there until the early signs of crisis began to show themselves.
Silver began 2005 below $6.50. It finished the year closer to $9.
It crested $15 in 2006... touched $21 in 2008... closed 2010 above $30... and ultimately peaked at $48.70 in April 2011.
When the smoke cleared, silver had turned in a ten-year run worth 1,059% — climbing from $4.20 to over $48.00 per ounce.
If today's silver bull market makes a similar move forward, silver prices could skyrocket well past $237 an ounce.
Just take a look:
tcn-silver-double-chart5
tcn-silver-double-chart6
Now, silver prices at $237 may seem like a stretch — especially considering the fact that the white metal hasn't had much strength over $35.
Nevertheless, $237 silver is absolutely possible.
Here's why...

How a Metal Bull Market Works
Every major metal bull market in modern history has consisted of three main stages:
1. Currency Devaluation Stage
2. Investment Demand Stage
3. Mania Stage
During these three stages, silver prices typically rise in a parabolic upswing, which ultimately results in a sharp, skyrocketing price spike.
Take, for example, the Great Depression...
Silver went from $0.254 to $0.437 from 1932 to 1933 — a one-year gain of 72%.
It then spiked higher than $0.58 over the next two years.
Or consider the 1970s, when silver started the decade at $1.63 and finished it at over $21 per ounce — a gain of 1,188%!
Right now we are staring straight at those kinds of silver gains, yet again.
So far in today's silver bull market, we've seen evidence of the first two stages...
During the first stage of a silver bull market, prices increase because of currency devaluation.
So far in this bull market, a dramatic drop in the value of the U.S. dollar against other world currencies has lifted silver prices. That began in 2001 and 2002, when the U.S. dollar index stood at 120. Silver traded for $4.20.
By 2006, after a dot-com bust and with two wars blaring, the dollar index had fallen to 88. Silver traded for $9.80.
Bernanke was appointed in 2006.
By 2011, the U.S. dollar index had fallen below 74.
The very month the dollar index bottomed — April 2011 — silver prices topped at over $48.
tcn-silver-double-chart7
The dollar's value FELL by 38% in a decade.
Silver WENT UP over 1,000%.
Silver's recent fall was only a pause in this bull market, a breather from the race.
Because here we are — a $17 trillion debt, years of money printing we can't afford, an economy that just won't heal... and we're about to add some dynamite to an alreadyhighly explosive silver situation.
In the second stage, silver prices continue to grow due to increased investment demand.
Attracted by the gains of the first stage of the silver bull market, investors begin to buy silver as an investment, which further snowballs the price of silver higher.
And with today's screaming demand for physical silver, the introduction of silver ETFs and other similar products... investment demand has had incredible strength since the beginning of this silver bull market, growing in terms of both tonnage and dollar demand.
tcn-silver-double-chart8
Again, the first and second stages of a silver bull market generally return considerable gains. In fact, silver prices in this bull market have increased as much as 423%, from $9.17 an ounce in 2006 to over $48.
Of course, with the investment tool that I'm about to show you, that 423% return could've stuffed your pockets with more than 840% gains!
Don't worry if you missed it. Truth be told, it's the third and final stage of a silver bull market that can turn everyday investors into instant millionaires...

The Mania Stage of a Silver Bull Market could Hand YOU
Several Thousand Percent Gains in Short Order
Everyone knows there's no rush like a metals rush.
And a speculative mania can kindle an inferno of popular greed that rivals that of the Conquistador's legendary lust for gold.
During the third stage of a bull market, mania buying finally turns silver's parabolic upswing into a blistering price spike.
Make no mistake, mania stage is already beginning...
And this time, it's happening across the entire globe:
  • Earlier this year, the U.S. Mint suspended sales for its American Eagle one-ounce silver coin.
  • Holdings in ETFs backed by silver are at an all-time high — over 44 million pounds!
  • Monthly silver sales from the Perth Mint are averaging TWICE the monthly sales in 2012.
  • U.S Mint sales of silver are up 45% over last year.
And this rapidly spreading shortage is only the beginning of what is bound to launch silver prices to levels of mass hysteria... making those on top of the wave filthy rich.
Now let me tell you how you can...

Double Your Silver Profits Using This Unique Investment Tool
7 Major Reasons to Invest in Silver 
1. The amount of silver consumed annually and bought for investment currently exceeds total annual mining output — and has for years.
2. The last time silver was found in huge concentrations or veins was in the Comstock Lode in Nevada in the late 1800s.
3. Silver is the most conductive metal on earth.
4. Silver is an essential element in the electronic gadgets that are a growing part of our digital age. It is a critical component of every cellphone, smartphone, tablet, computer keyboard, solar cell, and radio frequency ID device (RFID).
5. Silver's industrial demand should increase 60% to 666 million ounces per  year by 2016 from 487 million ounces per year in 2010.
6. Of a total of 50 billion ounces of silver that have been mined in history, only 2 million ounces (estimate), or 5%, remain in aboveground inventories available to be bought and sold.
7. Silver also has many medicinal applications. Roman soldiers long ago noticed that if water is kept in silver cups, it wouldn't become stagnant. Today silver in "colloidal" form is used as a broad-spectrum antibiotic.
During the midst of the Great Recession, one of the world's leading international investment managers quietly launched a new, one-of-a-kind investment vehicle designed to double the daily return of silver prices.
Mind you, this investment has been all but ignored by media since its launch.
Silver, after all, has never been understood or appreciated by the mainstream, despite its historic economic significance.
Still, for every 1% increase in the price of silver, this new silver investment vehicle delivers a positive 2% return.
There's no investment club to join. You won't have to open a special account to get in on the action. It trades on the NYSE.
Plus, it's completely liquid — and easy to add to any stock account you own right now.
To top it off, as you already know, now is the time you want to be in silver!
Yes, silver prices have pulled back quite a bit... but for all the reasons I just laid out for you, it simply can't stay this low for long.
Sooner or later, the U.S. dollar will collapse. It's imminent.
In fact, we're already uncovering tons of evidence to prove that it's already started.
And it's launching the mania buying stage to previously unthinkable levels... making this new silver investment vehicle a true "no-brainer."
Now, before I get into the details of how you could start collecting DOUBLE silver's profits, let me briefly introduce myself...

Watching from The Crow's Nest
Hi. I'm Jimmy Mengel.
I'm Angel Publishing's managing editor of Outsider Club and our financial planning advisory, The Crow's Nest.
Where, exactly, does the name "The Crow's Nest" come from?
In the days of naval conquest, explorers were only as good as their lookout...
The best lookouts were built atop the highest point of a ship's mast, an area aptly named after the birds that would often perch there: the crow's nest.
While dangerous to climb, it was there that the lookout could see for miles out and identify any hazards, traps, or storms, well before they threatened the ship.
Not only did they spot potential threats and dangers, but a good lookout could spy treasure, land, and opportunity to safely guide the captain to riches and prosperity.
It is for this reason that the success of most ships depended on the crow's nest.
As you can imagine, today's financial landscape shares much with the high seas of pirate lore. The world of personal finance is filled with tricks, traps, fees, and scalawags...
But instead of Blackbeard coming for your booty, you have bankers, money managers, and government officials with their beady eyes fixed on emptying your pockets.
It's time to wake up and take matters into your own hands — not just with investments, but in every financial aspect of your life.
After all, you are the captain of your own ship.
But a captain is only as good as his crew... and that's why we at The Crow's Nest are ready to break our backs for you.
We are your own personal lookout, at your service and ready to steady the turbulent seas of finance.
We will demystify your finances and arm you with the knowledge and research you need to save, grow your money, and prosper — all on your own.
The Crow's Nest will teach you, step by step, how to completely take control of your finances — from buying stocks to plotting your retirement, taking advantage of tax breaks, and simply plugging the money leaks that threaten to sink your finances.
And of course, The Crow's Nest will reveal how you can make DOUBLE silver's daily return... starting today!
If you are ready to not only protect your wealth from this economic insanity, but also profit like you never imagined, I want to give you a fresh copy of my latest report.
It's called, "Silver's Doubling Effect."
And I want you to have it for FREE.
I also want to give you a brand-new, uncirculated one-ounce American Silver Eagle coin with my compliments, just as soon as you...

Get Started Doubling Your Silver Profits
To receive your free silver report, all I ask is that you agree to a risk-free $69 trial of The Crow's Nest.
The Crow's Nest isn't your normal investment advisory...
It is the definitive resource for investors seeking profits — and protection — in a precious metals bull market with no end in sight.
It's where investors burned by the financial crisis are now turning, as a safe haven alternative to the agenda-guided mainstream financial media.
Truth is in our Crow's Nest portfolio, we disqualify 99.9% of the mining and precious metals plays out there...
But when we're fully 100% behind a potential lucrative investment — like this rare silver opportunity — you'll get the trade recommendation in a moment's notice.
We tell you what to buy, when to sell, and when to hold... so you can enjoy the greatest gains possible.
Plus, every month you'll receive profit-producing research, including my special Crow's Nest reports and urgent updates, as well as unrestricted access to The Crow's Nestexclusive members' site...
All for just $69 a year. That's less than $0.24 a day!
In other words, for less than a stick of gum, you can begin receiving my Crow's Nestadvisory... in addition to getting a free copy of my new special report, "Silver's Doubling Effect."
The intel in that report — combined with what you'll see in the monthly updates — has the potential for payoffs so large, you may never go back to your broker for advice again.
Let me help you make those returns.
Now, I should tell you that I can't promise this deeply discounted $69 price I'm offering will remain that low for long...
My publisher's already talking of hiking the price by several hundred dollars more per year. (Not that I can blame him. I've seen other services boasting a fraction of the returns I've delivered to investors like you over the years charging as much as $5,000.)
However, locking in a one-year membership guarantees that you receive The Crow's Nest at the low rate of $69 — even after other people start paying a higher rate.
Want to save even more?
Choose the lifetime option, and this valuable info will be yours for just pennies per day... and I'll send you a brand-new one-ounce American Silver Eagle coin as a personal "thank you" for trying out my service.
And if you're not completely satisfied with the quality of service and commentary we offer, simply call us any time in the next six months and I'll refund every penny. No questions asked, no fine print.
You have a full half-year to test-drive everything I've outlined today.
How many other services have you seen that offer you a guarantee like that?
Even if you choose to cancel, you can hang on to your copy of "Silver's Doubling Effect" as my way of saying thank you for trying out The Crow's Nest.
But like I said, silver's ascent is already beginning... and it's not turning back any time soon.
So I urge you to join us and receive your free report by clicking on the button below.
Double silver profits are waiting...
All hands on deck,
Jimmy Mengel Signature
Jimmy Mengel
Editor, The Crow's Nest
http://www.angelnexus.com/o/web/64017?r=1

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Friday, July 11, 2014

Satu artikel cukup menarik untuk difikir dan diambil tindakan. Rujukan


Ten Reasons Why Someone Will Never Be Rich
1. Overspending
If you have a ferocious appetite for spending beyond your means, you’re not alone. According to a survey, of the 52% of people who habitually overspend, many balance the shortfall by taking from their savings, and 22% rely on credit cards. Blowing all your money each month is not a realistic pathway to wealth. Start tracking where your money goes each month, check where you can cut back, and create a ‘realistic’ budget that allows you to pay your bills and invest in a retirement account or an emergency fund.
2. Not Saving Enough
Welcome to the club! The personal savings percentage in the US is a measly 4.9% of disposable income. Saving should become a priority if you want to accumulate wealth. Start with an emergency fund. Once your emergency fund is substantial, you can redirect small amounts toward other goals like purchasing a home or paying for college.
3. You Have Too Much Debt
Certain debts are a precursor to financial success, like purchasing real estate or starting a business; however, a high-interest credit card balance is not. Pay off credit cards with the highest rates first.
4. You Don’t Have a Plan
Without a definite, clearly defined plan, becoming rich will seem like an unbelievable dream. This alone will solidify your excuses for overspending and not saving. As the saying goes, “Those who fail to plan, plan to fail.” Putting together a financial plan may seem tedious, but it doesn’t have to be, and you can get used to it.
5. You Don’t Have an Emergency Fund
Experts say you need at least six months of income saved in case of an emergency. Life is tricky, and not having some type of safety net can turn a comfortable situation into a disaster.
6. You Started Late
Time is slipping by. Just like starting an exercise routine, the most difficult part about saving is getting started. Even if you have debt, a small income, or many expenses, you can save something, even if it’s only a small amount.

7. You Complain Rather Than Commit
“I don’t earn enough money”; “Life is too expensive”; “It’s hopeless, I’ll never get out of debt.” Have you uttered any of these statements before, or perhaps all of them? Old habits die hard; however, as long as you do nothing to change, nothing will change. Stop complaining and making excuses. Instead, take responsibility for your non-productive habits and concentrate on how to change them – and then do it!
8. You Live for Today, and Forget About Tomorrow
It’s no fun getting serious and thinking about retirement and all that stuff. Nonetheless, eventually it has to be done. The problem is that impulsive and unregulated spending leads to debt… period! Do yourself a big favor: Get rid of the ‘buy now, worry later’ attitude, and switch to a ‘save now, get rich later’ way of thinking.
9. Putting All Your Eggs in One Basket
You might get lucky by wagering all your money on one type of investment. Just like you might get lucky winning the lottery. But that’s not a strategy to live by, or for getting rich. Putting all your money in one place is not advised because it puts you at too much risk. Your investment portfolio should include multiple investments with varied levels of risk and ROI potential and liquidity.
10. You Just Don’t Get It!
You may be one of those people who believe that somehow something will come along and save you, so why bother with saving or trying to get out of debt? Maybe you will get lucky and land a fantastic job, receive a big pay raise, inherit money, hit the lottery, or whatever! But ‘whatever’ won’t cut it if you really want to become rich. Yes, life is uncertain. No one knows what will, or will not, actually happen; therefore, why not focus on what you can control today? Get it together now and save yourself, in case someone or something else won’t.

One thing you can be sure of: You are already rich. Think about it. If someone came to you and offered you a million dollars for your arm, would you give it up? Why not, you have two; you can surely spare one of them! Of course the answer would be no! Being rich is more than physical ownership; it’s a state of happiness and well-being, while wishing the same for others. So while you are working on getting rich materially, remember to be happy along the way!