E-PENGAJARAN&PEMBELAJARAN

DAT 32504 PEMBANGUNAN APLIKASI E-DAGANG


MATLAMAT (GOALS) :
Matlamat kursus ini adalah untuk memperkenalkan pelajar kepada persekitaran e-dagang dan meningkatkan kebolehan dalam menulis pengaturcaraan bagi pembangunan aplikasi e-dagang.

SINOPSIS (SYNOPSIS) :
Kursus pembangunan aplikasi e-dagang ini mendedahkan para pelajar kepada elemen-elemen asas dan teknologi yang boleh digunakan untuk e-dagang. Ianya akan menekankan kepada konsep umum e-dagang, infrastruktur teknologi, strategi perniagaan kepada pelanggan, strategi perniagaan ke perniagaan, pemasaran web, persekitaran web, implementasi keselamatan dan juga sistem pembayaran elektronik melalui web.    

HASIL PEMBELAJARAN (LEARNING OUTCOMES) :
Di akhir kursus ini, pelajar dapat: 
  1. Menunjuk cara penyelesaian masalah menggunakan model perniagaan e-dagang yang sesuai. (C3, CTPS)
  2. Menghasilkan aplikasi e-dagang dengan menggunakan infrastruktur berasaskan web. (P3, Praktikal)
  3. Melaksanakan strategi perniagaan e-dagang dalam projek yang dihasilkan. (A2, KK)


TUGASAN DAN PROJEK
(ASSIGNMENT  AND PROJECT)

Tugasan : Pengetahuan Domain Perdagangan   Mata Wang Asing (forex), Cryptocurrency, CFD, Future_Metal, Future Energy dan Indices.

Projek 1 : Membangunkan Aplikasi E-Dagang Penasihat Pakar (Expert Advisor) dalam Perdagangan   Mata Wang Asing (forex), Cryptocurrency, CFD, Future_Metal, Future Energy dan Indices.
Projek 2 : Menguji Penasihat Pakar (Expert Advisor) dalam Perdagangan Mata Wang Asing (forex), Cryptocurrency, CFD, Future_Metal, Future Energy dan Indices.


RUJUKAN (REFERENCES):

  1. Ishamil Ahmad, Miswan Surip, 2014. Memahami FOREX:Bagaimana Meminimumkan Risiko Dalam FOREX. Yamani Angle Sdn Bhd.. Selangor, MY. HG3851.I85
  2.  Andrew R. Young, 2010. Expert Advisor Programming:Creating Automated Trading Systems in MQL for MetaTrader 4, Edgehill Publishing, Nashville, TN.
  3.  Carley Garner, 2012. Currency trading in the forex and futures markets , Upper Saddle River, N.J. : FT Press. HG3853 .G37.
  4. Ed Carlson , 2012. George Lindsay and the art of technical analysis : trading systems of a market master  Ed . Upper Saddle River, N.J. : FT Press. HG4529 .C38.
  5. Michael Duane Archer, 2012. Getting started in currency trading, 4th Edition, Hoboken, N.J. : John Wiley & Sons. HG3851 .A72 .
  6. Norris, Jay, Gaskill, Al, Bell, Teresa.2010. Mastering the currency market : forex strategies for high and low volatility markets. New York : McGraw-Hill. HG3851 .N67.
  7.  S.Kovalyov, 2010. Programming in Algorithmic Language MQL4, MetaQuotes Software Corp.


PENILAIAN (ASSESSMENT):
B.  Teori + Praktikal/Makmal    (Penilaian 60% kerja kursus - 40% pep. akhir)

Komponen
Domain
Pemberat
Elemen OBE
Penilaian Berterusan (Continuous Assessments)
Tugasan (Pertandingan)
Psikomotor
15%
Kemahiran Keusahawanan (CLO3-A2, PLO7-ES)
Latihan Praktikal (Lab 1- Lab 6)
Psikomotor
20%
Kemahiran Praktikal (CLO2-P3, PLO2- PS) 

Pembentangan Projek
Afektif
5%

 Kemahiran Praktikal (CLO2-P3, PLO2- PS)
Projek Sistem (Pembangunan Projek Sistem Penasihat Pakar & Laporan Teknikal)
Afektif
20%
Kemahiran Praktikal (CLO2-P3, PLO2- PS)
Penilaian Akhir
(Final Assessment)
Peperiksaan Akhir
Kognitif
40%
Pengetahuan
(CLO1-C3, PLO4-CTPS)
JUMLAH
100%





















BAHAN RUJUKAN ILMIAH MENGENAI PELABURAN

http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/

http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/

http://www.forexjournal.com/

http://www.forexeasystems.com/

http://www.compassfx.com/education/fundamental_vs_technical_analysis.htm

http://www.forexindicator.org/


A Theoretical Foundation For Technical Analysis

NOTA 1: MQL4

1.0 MQL4 TUTORIAL

The MQL4 Tutorial is a comprehensive manual for MQL4 language designed to help a trader optimize trading in Forex market by automation of certain actions or even all trading processes. 

MQL4 – is a programming language of trading strategies integrated to MetaTrader 4 trading platform. MQL4 language allows creating mechanical trading systems: expert advisors, scripts, custom indicators, and function libraries, which automate Internet-trading in accordance with a certain trading strategy or makes it easier to analyse the market. 

Expert advisors, indicators and scripts written in MQL4 can work day and night opening and closing trading positions, as well as notifying the trader about all programmed changes in Forex market. 

MQL4 language does not require any special computer knowledge. Everybody has the opportunity to study the algorithmic programming language by themselves and test the obtained knowledge on demo and real accounts. (source http://www.forexltd.co.uk/study/mql4tutorial/ )

1.1 MQL4 BOOK


 http://www.metaquotes.net/en/metatrader4/trading_terminal

http://www.metaquotes.net/en/metatrader4/automated_trading


NOTA 2

2.1 TAKRIF E-DAGANG


•
Perdagangan Elektronik, juga dipanggil E-dagang atau dalam bahasa Inggerisnya Electronic Commerce (EC) adalah sebuah sistem perniagaan dan jual beli yang banyak menggunakan kemudahan teknologi maklumat terutama telekomunikasi canggih sehingga dapat melindungi dan memuaskan pengguna-penggunanya iaiitu yang terdiri daripada penjual, pembeli dan pihak-pihak yang ketiga seperti bank, syarikat kewangan, syarikat kad kredit, pengeluar sijil pengesahan digital dan lain-lain lagi.   
•

 electronic commerce (EC) 
The process of buying, selling, or exchanging products, services, or information via computer


2.2.PENGENALAN FOREX

 VIDEO FOREX

Forex adalah singkatan kepada Foreign Exchange, iaitu pertukaran asing. Ia merupakan sebuah pasaran kewangan yang terbesar di dunia. Menurut Bank_for_International_Settlements, pada April 2010 purata pulangan harian dalam pasaran tukaran mata wang asing global adalah dianggarkan urusniaganya bernilai melebihi *RM12.14 trilion (USD3.98 trillion) sehari.* 1USD=RM3.0500 (23 Februari 2011).[1] . Pertambahan ini adalah sebanyak 20% dari niali urusniaga pada April 2007 iaitu sebanyak RM9.79 trilion (USD 3.21 trilion). Pecahan nilai dagangan sebanyak RM12.14 trilion (USD3.98 trillion) adalah seperti berikut:
  • RM4.55 trilion ($1.490 trillion) dalam urusniaga spot
  • RM14.49 bilion ($475 billion) dalam outright forwards
  • RM5.38 trilion ($1.765 trillion)  swap pertukaran asing
  • RM131.15 bilion ($43 billion) dalam swap mata wang
  • RM631.35 bilion ($207 billion) dalam option dan produk lain-lain
Forex melibatkan urusniaga dimana kita membeli satu mata wang dan menjual satu mata wang yang lain. Pasangan mata wang (currency pair) ini diurusniagakan melalui broker (contohnya InstaForex) dalam bentuk pasangan (pair)  Mata wang asas (base currency) merujuk kepada mata wang pertama dalam pasangan. Manakala mata wang kaunter (counter currency) merujuk kepada pasangan mata wang kedua dalam pasangan. Sebagai contoh pasangan mata wang EURUSD (Euro dengan United State Dollar). EUR adalah mata wang asas dan USD adalah mata wang kaunter. . Jika anda membeli pasangan mata wang ini bermakna anda membeli GBP dan menjual USD.

Pasaran pertukaran asing unik disebabkan oleh:

  1. jumlah perdagangan sangat besarnya, membawa kepada kecairan tinggi;
  2. penyerakan geografinya;
  3. operasi berterusannya: 24 jam satu hari kecuali hari Sabtu dan Ahad,
  4. pelbagai faktor yang mempengaruhi kadar pertukaran;
  5. margin rendah keuntungan relatif dibandingkan dengan pasaran lain pendapatan tetap; dan
  6. penggunaan pengumpilan untuk meningkatkan margin keuntungan terhadap saiz akaun.
Pasangan mata wang yang diurusniagakan terbahagi kepada 6 komponen iaitu Forex Major (contohnya EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY), Forex Crosses (contohnya AUDJPY, NZDJPY, CADJPY), Forex Crosses 2 (contohnya EURAUD, GBPJPY), Forex Crosses 3 (contohnya GBPNZD, EURCAD, GBPAUD), Forex Crosses 4 (contohnya USDDKK, USDSEK), Forex Crosses 5 (contohnya AUDZK, CADCZK).

FOREX telah menjadi alternatif yang paling popular kerana pulangan pelaburan, ROI (Return On Investment ) yang akan dijana melebihi 5% - 10% sebulan berbanding dengan pelaburan lain. Bahkan boleh mencapai lebih 100% sebulan untuk pedagang (trader) profesional. FOREX juga mempunyai risiko tinggi apabila anda tidak mempunyai pengetahuan yang cukup dan pengurusan kewangan yang baik.

Urusniaga jual beli mata wang antara negara  melibatkan pasar-pasar mata wang utama di dunia yang berlangsung secara 24 jam secara berterusan selama 5 hari bermula dari hari Isnin sehingga hari Jumaat. Aktiviti urusniaga tidak dilakukan pada hari Sabtu dan Ahad. Urusniaga Forex bermula dari bursa Sydney Australia (jam 6 pagi hingga 3 petang) Kemudian terus ke bursa Asia iaitu Tokyo Jepun (jam 8 pagi hingga 5 petang) . Selanjutnya ke bursa London Eropah (jam 4 petang hingga 12 tengah malam). Dan akhirnya sampai ke bursa New York Amerika Syarikat (jam 9 malam hingga 6 pagi). Rajah di bawah.





 KEPERLUAN PENTING

  • Komputer/Note Book.
  • Talian internet rumah/ Jalur lebar.
  • Akaun  bank contohnya maybank, cimb yang mempunyai kemudahan perbankan internet.
  • E-mail.

 RINGKASAN




NOTA 3


 3.0 TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Technical indicator is a mathematical manipulation of a security price and/or volumes aimed at forecasting of future price changes. Decisions about how and when to open or close positions can be made on basis of signals from technical indicators. According to their functionalities, indicators can be divided into two groups: trend indicators and oscillators. Trend indicators help to assess the price direction and detect the turn moments synchronously or with a delay. Oscillators allow to find the turning moments ahead or synchronously.

3.1 Bollinger Bands
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5kT5keZ4_8&t=167s

Bollinger Bands Technical Indicator (BB) is similar to Envelopes. The only difference is that the bands of Envelopes are plotted a fixed distance (%) away from the moving average, while the Bollinger Bands are plotted a certain number of standard deviations away from it. Standard deviation is a measure of volatility, therefore Bollinger Bands adjust themselves to the market conditions. When the markets become more volatile, the bands widen and they contract during less volatile periods.
Bollinger Bands are usually plotted on the price chart, but they can be also added to the indicator chart (Custom Indicators). Just like in case of the Envelopes, the interpretation of the Bollinger Bands is based on the fact that the prices tend to remain in between the top and the bottom line of the bands. A distinctive feature of the Bollinger Band indicator is its variable width due to the volatility of prices. In periods of considerable price changes (i.e. of high volatility) the bands widen leaving a lot of room to the prices to move in. During standstill periods, or the periods of low volatility the band contracts keeping the prices within their limits.
The following traits are particular to the Bollinger Band:
1.abrupt changes in prices tend to happen after the band has contracted due to decrease of volatility.
2.if prices break through the upper band, a continuation of the current trend is to be expected.
3.if the pikes and hollows outside the band are followed by pikes and hollows inside the band, a reverse of trend may occur.
4.the price movement that has started from one of the band’s lines usually reaches the opposite one. The last observation is useful for forecasting price guideposts.

Calculation
Bollinger bands are formed by three lines. The middle line (ML) is a usual Moving Average.
ML = SUM [CLOSE, N]/N
The top line, TL, is the same as the middle line a certain number of standard deviations (D) higher than the ML.
TL = ML + (D*StdDev)
The bottom line (BL) is the middle line shifted down by the same number of standard deviations.
BL = ML — (D*StdDev)
Where:

N — is the number of periods used in calculation;


StdDev — means Standard Deviation.

StdDev = SQRT(SUM[(CLOSE — SMA(CLOSE, N))^2, N]/N)

It is recommended to use 20-period Simple Moving Average as the middle line, and plot top and bottom lines two standard deviations away from it. Besides, moving averages of less than 10 periods are of little effect.

3.2 Moving Average Convergence/Divergence 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Y6qGd5oVMo

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence is the next trend-following dynamic indicator. It indicates the correlation between two price moving averages. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Technical Indicator is the difference between a 26-period and 12-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). In order to clearly show buy/sell opportunities, a so-called signal line (9-period indicators` moving average) is plotted on the MACD chart. The MACD proves most effective in wide-swinging trading markets. There are three popular ways to use the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence: crossovers, overbought/oversold conditions, and divergences. Crossovers The basic MACD trading rule is to sell when the MACD falls below its signal line. Similarly, a buy signal occurs when the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence rises above its signal line. It is also popular to buy/sell when the MACD goes above/below zero. Overbought/oversold conditions The MACD is also useful as an overbought/oversold indicator. When the shorter moving average pulls away dramatically from the longer moving average (i.e., the MACD rises), it is likely that the security price is overextending and will soon return to more realistic levels. Divergence An indication that an end to the current trend may be near occurs when the MACD diverges from the security. A bullish divergence occurs when the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator is making new highs while prices fail to reach new highs. A bearish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new lows while prices fail to reach new lows. Both of these divergences are most significant when they occur at relatively overbought/oversold levels. Calculation The MACD is calculated by subtracting the value of a 26-period exponential moving average from a 12-period exponential moving average. A 9-period dotted simple moving average of the MACD (the signal line) is then plotted on top of the MACD. MACD = EMA(CLOSE, 12)-EMA(CLOSE, 26) SIGNAL = SMA(MACD, 9) Where:
EMA — the Exponential Moving Average;
SMA — the Simple Moving Average;
SIGNAL — the signal line of the indicator.  

3.3 Moving Average

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4R2CDbw4g88

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rMkQurfxrE&t=3s

The Moving Average Technical Indicator shows the mean instrument price value for a certain period of time. When one calculates the moving average, one averages out the instrument price for this time period. As the price changes, its moving average either increases, or decreases. There are four different types of moving averages: Simple (also referred to as Arithmetic), Exponential, Smoothed and Linear Weighted. Moving averages may be calculated for any sequential data set, including opening and closing prices, highest and lowest prices, trading volume or any other indicators. It is often the case when double moving averages are used. The only thing where moving averages of different types diverge considerably from each other, is when weight coefficients, which are assigned to the latest data, are different. In case we are talking of simple moving average, all prices of the time period in question, are equal in value. Exponential and Linear Weighted Moving Averages attach more value to the latest prices. The most common way to interpreting the price moving average is to compare its dynamics to the price action. When the instrument price rises above its moving average, a buy signal appears, if the price falls below its moving average, what we have is a sell signal. This trading system, which is based on the moving average, is not designed to provide entrance into the market right in its lowest point, and its exit right on the peak. It allows to act according to the following trend: to buy soon after the prices reach the bottom, and to sell soon after the prices have reached their peak. Moving averages may also be applied to indicators. That is where the interpretation of indicator moving averages is similar to the interpretation of price moving averages: if the indicator rises above its moving average, that means that the ascending indicator movement is likely to continue: if the indicator falls below its moving average, this means that it is likely to continue going downward. Here are the types of moving averages on the chart: ·Simple Moving Average (SMA) ·Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ·Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) ·Linear Weighted Moving Average (LWMA) Calculation Simple Moving Average (SMA) Simple, in other words, arithmetical moving average is calculated by summing up the prices of instrument closure over a certain number of single periods (for instance, 12 hours). This value is then divided by the number of such periods. SMA = SUM(CLOSE, N) / N Where:
N — is the number of calculation periods. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Exponentially smoothed moving average is calculated by adding the moving average of a certain share of the current closing price to the previous value. With exponentially smoothed moving averages, the latest prices are of more value. P-percent exponential moving average will look like: EMA = (CLOSE(i) * P) + (EMA(i - 1) * (100 - P))

Where:
CLOSE(i) — the price of the current period closure;
EMA(i-1) — Exponentially Moving Average of the previous period closure;
P — the percentage of using the price value. Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) The first value of this smoothed moving average is calculated as the simple moving average (SMA): SUM1 = SUM(CLOSE, N) SMMA1 = SUM1/N The second and succeeding moving averages are calculated according to this formula: PREVSUM = SMMA(i - 1) * N SMMA(i) = (PREVSUM - SMMA(i - 1) + CLOSE(i)) / N Where:
SUM1 — is the total sum of closing prices for N periods;
PREVSUM — smoothed sum of previous bar;
SMMA1 — is the smoothed moving average of the first bar;
SMMA(i) — is the smoothed moving average of the current bar (except for the first one);
CLOSE(i) — is the current closing price;
N — is the smoothing period. The formula can be simplified as a result of arithmetic manipulations: SMMA (i) = (SMMA(i - 1) * (N - 1) + CLOSE (i)) / N Linear Weighted Moving Average (LWMA) In the case of weighted moving average, the latest data is of more value than more early data. Weighted moving average is calculated by multiplying each one of the closing prices within the considered series, by a certain weight coefficient. LWMA = SUM(Close(i)*i, N) / SUM(i, N) Where:
SUM(i, N) — is the total sum of weight coefficients.


3.4 average directional index (ADX)

 http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/adx-trend-indicator.asp



 NOTA 4


4.1 Scalping in Forex Trading

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhEukjCzXwM
What is scalping?
Forex scalping is a trading strategy in which the trader makes dozens or even hundreds of trades daily, looking to capture a few pips per trade. Generally, scalpers stay in trades for less than a minute, bolting as soon as their position captures a few pips. Simply put, scalping is a procedure by which one makes a trade with the goal of only making a couple of points. Basically scalping is profiting from rather small moves in the market. A scalper trader will only stay in the market for seconds to minutes at a time. Forex scalping is the art of using high leverage and a large number of short term trades to make a steady profit. Usually, only 1 to 10 pips are targeted for each trade. Trading is done on the major currencies. The majority of intraday scalpers tend to be futures players, meaning they profit from small moves in the market.

Scalping is based on an assumption that most Forex patterns will maintain the first stage of a movement that will move in the desired direction for a brief time, but where it goes from there is uncertain. Some of the Forex trends will cease to advance and others will continue. A scalper intends to take as many small profits as possible, not allowing them to evaporate. Such an approach is the opposite of the "let your profits run" mindset, which attempts to optimize positive trading results by increasing the size of winning trades while letting others reverse. Scalping achieves results by increasing the number of winning trades and sacrificing the size of the wins. It's not uncommon for a trader of a longer time frame to achieve positive results by winning only half or even less of his or her trades - it's just that the wins are much bigger than the losses. A successful scalper, however, will have a much higher ratio of winning trades versus losing ones while keeping profits roughly equal to or slightly higher than losses. Practically any trading system, based on particular setups, can be used for the purposes of scalping. In this regard, scalping can be seen as a kind of method of risk management. Basically any trade can be turned into a scalp by taking a profit near the 1:1 risk/reward ratio. This means that the size of profit taken equals the size of a stop dictated by the setup.

 Scalping Requirements
  1. Price spreads and commissions to be as low as possible in order to reduce the cost of doing business to a realistic proportion of turnover.
  2. Data provision and execution must be fast.
  3. Adequate liquidity and a sufficiently large capital base in order to make the small targets and time spent monetarily worthwhile.

 The Advantages of Scalping

  1. Very effective method of using capital with minimal risk per trade.
  2. High percentage win rate.
  3. Scalping is suitable for the impatient trader who is prepared to devote a lot of time and continuous focus to the market.
  4. Event risk is small as the scalper will usually be almost certain of a fill at the chosen exit point even if conditions suddenly change.

 The Disadvantages of Scalping:
  1. Scalping is intense, draining, and demands a lot of screen time. Accurate timing is vital.
  2. Higher cost per unit of profit than longer term strategies.
  3. Scalping requires complex knowledge of market structure and order flow.
  4. Scalping can be very stressful and is not suitable for spread betting.
  5. Scalping fee of $1 per Mini Lot (10,000 base currency) applies. Relative fee applies.
  6. Minimum trade fee of $1 applies.
http://www.investtechfx.com/scalping.asp

4.2 Guerrilla Trading

"Guerrilla trading," as the colorful term suggests, refers to the technique employed by nimble traders who dart in and out of the financial jungle in short skirmishes that aim to generate quick profits while keeping risk to a minimum. A guerrilla trader’s defining characteristic is a very short-term trading timeframe that is even smaller than that of a scalper, and makes a day trader look like a long-term investor. Only computerized trading systems such as high frequency systems have shorter trading timeframes than the guerrilla trader.

Since the objective of guerrilla trading is to make small profits in multiple transactions, its success depends on low commissions, high leverage and, most importantly, tight trading spreads. So while guerrilla trading techniques can be used in any financial market, it may be best suited to foreign exchange trading, especially the major currency pairs that have abundant liquidity and low spreads.

Characteristics of Guerrilla Trading 
A guerrilla trader’s modus operandi is to make low absolute profits per trade, but to trade multiple times in a session so that the overall gains are substantial enough to justify the risk incurred in such short-term trading. Based on this profile, guerrilla trading generally has the following characteristics:
  • Very short-term trading timeframe: The average trade for a guerrilla trader only lasts a few minutes, and hardly exceeds this timeframe. This is because the longer the time spent in a trade, the greater the risk that it can go against the trader.
  • Small profits, even smaller losses: The guerrilla trader is quite content to make only 10 to 20 pips on a forex trade, compared with a scalper who may have an objective of more than twice this amount, or 25 to 50 pips. This means that the guerrilla trader cannot afford to risk more than a few pips on a single trade, with the maximum loss capped at levels as small as 5 to 10 pips.
  • Large number of trades: Successful guerilla traders may execute more than 20 to 25 trades in a single trading session when conditions are conducive to such frenzied trading. This is generally likely to happen when important economic data such as the monthly U.S. payroll numbers or trade data is released.
  • Technical analysis: Due to its short-term focus, guerrilla traders usually rely on technical analysis for timing their trades, and are adept at using tick charts or 1-minute charts to pinpoint entry and exit points for their trades.
  • Low commissions and spreads: Because of its high trading volume and low-return nature, guerrilla trading is heavily reliant on low commissions and tight trading spreads. Guerrilla traders therefore limit themselves to the major currency pairs where liquidity is assured, rather than exotic currencies that may have greater profit potential but significantly lower liquidity.
  • Experienced traders: Guerrilla trading is usually the province of experienced traders who possess enough trading acumen to have survived for a number of years. It is not recommended for novice traders, as such rapid-fire trading may wipe out their risk capital in a few sessions.
  • Calculated risk-taking: Since guerrilla traders engage in calculated risk-taking that entails having a stop-loss of only a few pips per trade, they may often choose to stay on the sidelines when the markets are too volatile and the risk of loss is too great.
Example of a Guerrilla Trade 
Consider a guerrilla trader with risk capital of $50,000 to be used as margin in a forex trading account with a major bank. The bank has a margin requirement of 2%, meaning that it offers leverage of up to 50 times. It also offers trading spreads of 2 pips on EUR/USD and charges commissions of $35 per USD$1 million traded.
Assume our trader executes 10 EUR/USD trades on a given day with an average position size of EUR1 million. The trader has six profitable trades with an average gain of 12 pips and four losing trades with an average loss of 6 pips. Let’s further assume that the EUR/USD exchange rate is about 1.3000.

Based on the average position size of EUR1 million, each pip is worth exactly $100. Therefore, the trader’s profit and loss (P&L) position looks like this:
Profitable trades = 6 x 12 pips per trade x $100 per pip=
$7,200
Less: Losing trades = 4 x 6 pips per trade x $100 per trade =
($2,400)
Gross P&L =
$4,800
Less: Trading commissions **
$455
Net P&L =
$4,345
(**10 trades x EUR1 million x 1.3000 = $13 million total value of trades x $35 per $1 million traded = $455).

This is obviously a highly simplified example of guerrilla trading. However, as the example demonstrates, the success of such a trading strategy depends to a very large extent on the trader’s ability to cut losing positions quickly, and let the profitable positions run just long enough to generate sufficient gains that more than offset such losses. At $100 per pip, even a single loss of 50 pips would wipe out most of the trader’s gains over this trading session.

Could you Be a Guerrilla Trader?
A successful guerrilla trader possesses the following traits:
  • Quick decision making: As forex markets are notoriously fickle, the successful trader has the ability to make trading decisions very rapidly so as to maximize gains and minimize losses.
  • Emotional detachment: Successful traders are emotionally detached from their trades; they neither fall in love with them (that is, they do not stand by a losing position), nor do they face perpetual regret about their trading decisions.
  • Adequate risk capital: The successful trader has sufficient risk capital and knows exactly how much to risk both on an individual trade and in total.
  • Trading experience: He or she is also likely to have cut their teeth in high-pressure trading situations over a number of years.
Guerrilla Trading Tips
Individuals who possess the trading experience, risk capital and mental fortitude to take the plunge into guerrilla trading should take note of the following tips:
  • Stop losses are the key: Guerrilla trading relies on keeping trading losses as low as possible, with the expectation that gains on profitable positions can more than offset these losses. Automatic stop losses that are triggered when a specific trading level is breached are a great way to ensure such trading discipline is enforced.
  • Trade the trend: Trading a strong short-term trend – for example, long USD-short EUR upon the release of positive U.S. economic data – may be the best way to generate quick profits, rather than adopting a contrarian position.
  • Use pro traders techniques: Risk mitigation by capping losses is the hallmark of the trading pros. As a general rule, refrain from "averaging down" by adding to losing positions, and avoid runaway losses by cutting a losing position quickly.
The Bottom Line
Guerrilla trading is not as easy as it may seem at first, and hence should only be attempted by experienced traders with sufficient risk capital. Novice investors who are tempted to try it, however, would be better off trying scalping or day trading to begin with, since the trading skills required for success – formidable though they may be – are still less than those required for guerrilla trading.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/052113/introduction-guerrilla-trading.asp




4.3 MARKET ORDER



From: PaxForex


NOTA 5

 5.1 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis involves assessing the economic well being of an entity, not taking into account its price movements. For traders in the stock market, they would take a look at the company’s earnings, expenses, assets, and liabilities. Fundamental traders will use those data points to determine the health of the company. If their economic well being is trending better as their company’s earnings and balance sheet is growing, then fundamental traders may buy the firm’s stock in anticipation of demand growing for that firm’s stock.

We have similar data points in foreign exchange, except for the whole economy rather than a specific company. A fundamental forex trader will analyze the country’s inflation, trade balance, gross domestic product, growth in jobs and even their central bank’s benchmark interest rate. By assessing the relative trend of these data points, a trader is analyzing the relative health of the country’s economy and whether to trade the future movement of their currency.
Kertaskerja Jurnal 1

Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders
Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie D. Chinn
NBER Working Paper No. 7417
Issued in November 1999
NBER Program(s):   IFM
We report findings from a survey of United States foreign exchange traders. Our results indicate that (i) technical trading best characterizes about 30% of traders, with this proportion rising from five years ago; (ii) news about macroeconomic variables is rapidly incorporated into exchange rates; (iii) the importance of individual macroeconomic variables shifts over time, although interest rates always appear to be important, and; (iv) economic fundamentals are perceived to be more important at longer horizons. The short run deviations of exchange rates from their fundamentals are attributed to excess speculation and institutional customer/hedge fund manipulation. Speculation is generally viewed positively, as enhancing market efficiency and liquidity, even though it exacerbates volatility. Central bank intervention does not appear to have a substantial effect, although there is general agreement that it increases volatility. Finally, traders do not view purchasing power parity as a useful concept, even though a significant proportion (40%) believe that it affects exchange rates at horizons of over six months
http://www.nber.org/papers/w7417



5.2 Nota daripada Ed Derovic
What is Fundamental Analysis? 
Fundamental Analysis looks at the core economy of a particular nation or union. The main focus is on different economic numbers that are released such as GDP, interest rates, unemployment rates, trade surplus or deficit and other numbers to get a better picture of the strength of the economy. So for example, if you've analysed that the Australian economy is healthier or stronger than the US economy, then you can speculate that the AUD/USD will be getting stronger so you would buy more AUD and sell USD. Or, if your analysis states that the Australian economy is weaker than the US economy, then you would sell the AUD and buy USD anticipating that the AUD will lose value compared to the USD. You would then make money because you sold before the drop in AUD happened and vice versa.

What is Technical Analysis? 

Technical analysis uses charts to view the price fluctuations between two currencies over a set period of time. To profit from these price fluctuations, technical traders look for emerging patterns and cycles in order to help determine and anticipate the next most likely move in price. As a technical trader you would generally not pay too much attention to the strength of the economy to make your decision because you are anticipating all the news and events to be priced into the chart. Technical analysis also involves the use of indicators to help you analyse the market. These indicators are usually mathematical formulas that are applied to the price movements in the market. Technical analysis uses these indicators in conjunction with price action to help determine the likely next movement of the market.

Ok, so what should I use? 
This question you will have to answer yourself because it depends on what kind of trader you are or you intend to be. Are you a long-term trader or a short-term trader? By long-term I mean do you like to take positions that last for months and years? If so, then you're better off focusing on fundamentals and taking a long-term view on the market. If on the other hand you like to take trades on a daily and weekly basis, then you're more likely to do well trading technically. You can always do both but I recommend getting good at one way of trading and then incorporating the other once you're comfortable. Don't try to do to much, especially not at the start. Remember, focus and discipline are keys to success.

And what about you (I hear you say)? 
Personally, I consider myself a technical trader. I believe that all the fundamental news are priced into the market and the current price reflects the health and strength of the economies which I am trading. However, I also like to listen to all the fundamental news every day just to be on top of any situations that could impact my trading on that day and week and the current positions that I may have.

So, bare in mind that fundamental news are a FUEL to technical analysis. Have you ever noticed how price gets to a certain technical level (such as a long-term support level) and then shoots up because some positive news came out or vice versa? This is not a coincidence...



NOTA 6

Pembangunan aplikasi robot forex menggunakan indikator ADX. Penerangan strategi berdagang menggunakan indikator ADX seperti dalam lampiran.

 http://www.forexmt4.com/_MT4_Systems%20Documentation/1%20ADX%20Indicator.pdf

http://www.tradeology.com/pdfs/ADXReport.pdf

NOTA 7
7.1 AUTO TRADING/ROBOT TRADING
To work at financial markets more effectively, one can develop one's own successful system of trading. It is very difficult to act within a chosen system of trading in the manual mode due to significant influence of normal human emotions. Mechanical trading systems do not suffer from this disadvantage.
Client Terminal gives a large range of means for development and use of mechanical trading systems (MTS, experts, advisors). The development environment allows to create, debug, and test expert advisors. Experts are able not only alert about recommendation trading signals, but undertake the complete control over trading activities online. Expert Advisors — mechanical trading systems that allow complete automation of analytical and trading activities.
In robot trading the buy and sell orders are sent out to be executed in the trading platform without the intervention of the user based on an underlying system or program. Here are the most important advantages that you get from trading with robots: (source http://freefxtradingrobot.net)
1. Minimize emotions - Robot trading the financial markets minimizes emotions that can lead to destructive results. Through keeping emotions at bay, automated software enables you to stick to the plan much easily. Because positions are taken automatically without your intervention, you will not be able to hesitate or ask why a trade was entered or closed. 

2. Ability to enter several trades - With robots, you can generate more trades per market than when you are trading manually. In addition, the ease of mirror trading your actions across multiple markets and timeframes is greatly improved. 

3. Attain consistency - In trying to navigate the financial markets, traders are often faced with the challenge of failing to plan their investments and not stick their plans. Even though a good plan can have the potential of bringing impressive gains, if you fail to comply with the basic rules, then you are altering any gains you could have realized. Since there is no trading plan that is 100 per cent efficient, robot softwares ensures that the rules of the game are kept, even in volatile markets. Therefore, using automated software enables you to attain consistency by trading the plan. 

4. Improved speed of execution of orders - Because automated trading software responds instantly to changing market conditions, they are able to improve the speed of execution of orders. Delaying in entering or exiting positions, even by a few seconds, can be disastrous to your trading account. 

5. Ability to backtest - Backtesting refers to subjecting of a certain set of trading rules to historical market data to determine the viability of the idea in terms of the average number of trades that a trader can expect to win (or lose) per unit of risk. When designing a robot for live trading, you can test your system over a reasonable period of time before subjecting it to live trading. This enables you to fine-tune it in case its viability is not very good. 

6. Built-in money management technology ensures minimum risk for maximum profit!

7.2 The Evolution of Expert Advisors in 2006-2008


 http://championship.mql5.com/2010/en/news/8
NOTA 8

8.1 Artikel mengenai EA

http://www.streetpips.com/blog/

8.2 Tips on How to Backtest MT4 Expert Advisors and Forex Robots

http://www.streetpips.com/tips-on-how-to-backtest-mt4-expert-advisors-and-forex-robots/




NOTA 9


9.0 Trailing Stops

 When we talk about the Trailing Stop techniques, we are talking about the exit positions strategy. Any trade position that you enter has to end with one of two results: A profit or a loss.
Therefore, you have only two concerns: To maximize your profit, and to minimize your losses. One of your early memories describes the confusion of exiting the position in the appropriate time. The market trends are in your favor, and are you making profits. Everything is perfect. But, suddenly, the market trends have turned against you. A worried novice trader would push the close button, and breath the a sigh of relief. The minute the market turns against us, you quickly run to the old profitable closed direction.

 Did you achieve the first dream? And, did you maximum your profit? No!
Two days after the previous lesson, you opened your pocket and made a bid. The profits blew up in your face, and suddenly the market turned its direction, you smiled and said "You can't cheat me anymore. I’ve learned my lesson." The market is still running against you, and you’re still smiling.
It will turn its direction. I'm sure!
It will turn its direction. I hope!
It will turn its direction. I'm scared!

 Finally, you push the close button and areleft crying. Did you achieve the second dream? Did you minimize your losses? No! The Trailing Stop is perfect for these types of situations where early exit might have prevented the profits to run and late exit might have prevented cutting the loss early. We are going to study how to set the Trailing Stop by hand in MetaTrader Terminal, and how write the code to embed the Trailing Stop. First, let's give the Trailing Stop
the dictionary definition.

 Trailing Stop Definition: 

 It’s a type of stop loss order that is set at a percentage level below the market price for a long position, or above the market price for a short position. The price is adjusted by an Expert Advisor as the price fluctuates. Note: The Trailing Stop modifies the order in your client terminal, and sends the new stop loss level to the broker. So, you have a running terminal to trail your orders. When you shut down the terminal, the Trailing Stops will no longer work. 

 How to Set a Trailing Stop Manually in MetaTrader?

 To place a Trailing Stop, you must have an opened position. Simply go to the position for which you want to set its Trailing Stop within the Terminal Window and right-click it. This will bring up the context menu showed in Figure 1. Choose from the Trailing Stop sub-menu, the level of the Trailing Stop that you would like to set. 






If you don’t find the Trailing Stop level you want in this menu, you can click “Custom” from the menu to bring up an input window to set the Trailing Stop (Figure 2).


MQL4 Trailing Stop sample code:

 // YOUR CODE HERE!
extern double TrailingStop = 100;
int MagicNumber = 101090;
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int start()
{
int cnt,total;
total = OrdersTotal();
// YOUR CODE HERE!
for(cnt=0;cnt
{
OrderSelect(cnt, SELECT_BY_POS, MODE_TRADES);
if(OrderType()<=OP_SELL && OrderSymbol()==Symbol())
{
if(OrderType()==OP_BUY) //<-- Long position is opened
{
TrailOrder(OrderType()); return(0); //<-- Trailling the order
}
if(OrderType()==OP_SELL) //<-- Go to short position
{
TrailOrder(OrderType()); return(0); //<-- Trailling the order
}
}

 }
return(0);
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
void TrailOrder(int type)
{
if(TrailingStop>0)
{
if(OrderMagicNumber() == MagicNumber)
{
if(type==OP_BUY)
{
if(Bid-OrderOpenPrice()>Point*TrailingStop)
{
if(OrderStopLoss()
{
OrderModify(OrderTicket(),OrderOpenPrice(),Bid-
Point*TrailingStop,OrderTakeProfit(),0,Green);
}
}
}
if(type==OP_SELL)
{
if((OrderOpenPrice()-Ask)>(Point*TrailingStop))
{
if((OrderStopLoss()>(Ask+Point*TrailingStop)) ||
(OrderStopLoss()==0))
{
OrderModify(OrderTicket(),OrderOpenPrice(),Ask+Point*TrailingStop,OrderTakeProf
it(),0,Red);
}
}
}
}
}
}
In the code above, we are trailing all the opened positions using the function
TrailOrder().
It will go through all the opened positions using a loop that starts from 0 and counts orders returned by OrdersTotal() function.To be certain that we are working with the order of current chart, we will check the Symbol against the selected OrderSymbol. Then, we will call the TrailOrder(), which takes only one parameter; the type of order: OP_SELL or OP_BUY.

 TrailOrder() function: 

 This is the function that handles the Trailing Stop for us. There are two types of orders: 

 Buy order:

 In the case of a Buy order, we check that the profit (current Bid price minus the open price) is greater than the Trailing Stop value that we have set (or the user set). We also modify the order to new Stop Loss level, which is equal to the current Bid price minus the Trailing Stop value.

 Sell order: 

 In the case of Sell order, we check that the profit (the open price minus current Ask price) is greater than the Trailing Stop value that we have set (or the user set). We also modify the order to new Stop Loss level which is equal to the current Ask price plus the Trailing Stop value.

NOTA 10
5 major mistakes to avoid when learning Forex trading by Rudy Wong 
Senior Trader, ForexMorningNews

Mistake number 1 - Lack of discipline. Simple. You should know exactly what time you trade, how long for, how much you trade, when to get in and what to get the hell out of there..... Discipline, discipline, discipline. This is the golden rule of Forex trading. You should have a simple Forex system every week that even a child could follow. Use the elastic band trick. Every time you mess up get an elastic band and pull it towards your own hand. OUCH! That will teach you. Every time indiscipline creeps in, get the elastic band out. You need to guard against greed, indiscipline and laziness. Form and make habits that improve and govern your Forex career. 

Mistake number 2 - Lack of practise. Until you get really, really good, use a dummy account. Don't use your real money to learn your craft, that's what the demo account is for. Make your mistakes with the demo and when you are good and ready, get your real wallet out. Not one day before though. The demo account is your learning curve. After every demo trade get your notepad and write some notes on your trade. What was good about it? What was bad about it? What would you do differently next time? Remember practise leads to perfect.

Mistake number 3 - Lack of research. Use everything and look everywhere for Forex knowledge. Use books, courses, seminars, teachers, mentors, other traders and the Internet. Look at charts, indentify patterns, and watch Bloomberg. Give yourself the best possible opportunity to make a good trade. The market will make a fool out of someone who has not done their homework and due diligence. Maybe you could get together with other Forex students and research together and learn together. Become a master Forex student, so you can quickly and easily identify patterns on charts and make that profitable trade so much easier to come by. 

Mistake number 4- Lack of focus. Set goals. How much do you expect to make this week, this month and this year? Do you have a Forex financial plan? If not, get one done now. Take small steps every day that are focused towards these goals and keep at them and over time you will succeed. Just preserve and don't give up. Focus on your goals and remind yourself of them daily and why you are trying to achieve them. Plan exactly what time each day or each week that you are either learning about Forex or trading, don't let anything distract you at this time. This is crucial. This time is your Forex time. Focus and concentration leads to results and BIG profits! Always remember that. 

Mistake number 5- Lack of willpower. OK you had one tough day. Now what? Do you just give up and go home? There will be days when you lose out in FOREX. That is the nature of the beast I'm afraid. When things are going against you in the market, hang in there. Markets change. You get better through your tough times. Mental and emotional strength is required to become a Forex master. Remember it is 10% skill and 90% mindset. Get your mind focused and set on your goals. Learn your lessons and move forward. You can fail your way to success if you just keep moving forward. 

You can be richer sooner rather than later. 


NOTA 11: PANDANGAN PAKAR 

Leo Shaw [Fibo Code]
Hi,

Most beginning Forex investors don't do nearly enough research and make way too many simple mistakes, which in the currency trading market will wipe out the funds in your account in no time.

So let's take a look at 3 of the top "Forex trading secrets" now to keep you profitable.



1. Follow obvious trends.



Even though this sounds simple, so many traders try to trade against major trends. The only reason that a currency trends (or moves continuously in one direction) is because banks, governments, or corporations are moving the market. This means that someone with a lot more money and experience than us is trading, and we don't want to trade against them.



So many Forex traders try to guess where the market is going to turn. Don't try it! The foreign exchange markets trend more often and more deeply than any other market in the world. Why not take advantage of that and trade with the big boys and girls rather than fighting against them?



2. Choose a system and stick with it.



If you have never traded the Forex before, you definitely need to learn all that you can about the markets. But a word of caution here - eventually you need to quit jumping from trading system to system and settle on one that works.



Of course a trading system is not going to work all of the time in every market - losing trades happen to everyone. But just because you make a bad trade doesn't mean that you need to switch systems. Find a system that you know works over time and stick to it.





3. Don't over-leverage.



Of all the Forex trading secrets, this is the one that is ignored the most. One of the beauties of the Forex exchange is that you can trade with insane amounts of leverage - usually 100:1. What that means is that with $1, you can control $100 of currency. So if you invest $1,000 in a trade, you are actually controlling $100,000.



The consistent profitability and proven reliability of this system also boasts the benefit of VERY low risk trading.



When the trade goes against you, you can lose big money fast. The only way to use leverage properly is by not risking too much of your capital per trade. At most, you should risk only 5% of your account - max!



Really, for beginning traders, risking 2% is as high as you should go.



To your successful trading



Leo Shaw


NOTA 12: PANDANGAN PAKAR OLEH Stephen Burns

http://www.wealthwire.com/news/equities/4476
Posted by Wealth Wire - Wednesday, January 30th, 2013





  
I firmly believe that what truly separates the 10% of winning traders from the 90% that lose is the trader’s mindset. The vast majority of traders think they want to trade until the losses hit them over and over and they just can’t mentally and emotionally handle it and end up quitting entirely. I believe the following ten principles separate the quitters from the winners in the FOREX/stock market.
1. They accept losing trades quickly but it does not define them, they learn and try again. The next trade will be more wise than the last one.
2. They compartmentalize emotions by not blaming themselves but understanding the historical expectancy of their systems returns. 
3. They have a bias toward action by constantly doing things that move them closer to their goal of being a rich trader. (Homework, chart study, reading, being mentored, back testing, etc. )
4. They change their minds sometimes, they know when to stop doing something that does not work and move in the direction of trading success through new lessons. They learn what type of trading is right for them.
5. They prepare for things to go wrong through risk management and position sizing  instead of just going naively toward their goals they are ready to make adjustments as needed.
6. They’re comfortable with discomfort, they will accept losses and draw downs in their method, they are willing to pay tuition to the markets to get to where they want to be.
7. They’re willing to wait, they patiently improve each day setting themselves up for those winning trades that will be very profitable in the future.
8. They have trading heroes that inspire them to be better than they are now and give them the hope of achieving their dreams.
9. They have more than passion they are on a mission, their desire for success gives them the drive to not quit until they win.
10. They know only time separates them from their goals of success in the markets. 
*Post courtesy of Stephen Burns at New Trader U.

NOTA 13 :

Seven Emerging Currencies Challenging The Forex Hierarchy

By Elvis Picardo, CFA
In the turbulent world of foreign exchange, the seven most heavily traded currencies occupy a fairly rigid hierarchical order. But though some position shuffling does take place in the top ranks, those moves pale in comparison to the action on the next rung of the forex ladder. In recent years, a number of second-tier currencies have seen a huge increase in their share of global forex turnover, posing a challenge to the established hierarchy. While some of these seven currencies may be obvious, others are less so. Before we delve into learning more about these emerging currencies, let’s take a quick look at the colossal global forex market and the currencies that presently dominate trading in it.

Global Forex Turnover is Soaring

The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) triennial survey of forex turnover (or trading volume) is perhaps the most authoritative source of global forex trading data. According to the BIS survey conducted in April 2013, global forex market activity was a staggering $5.3 trillion per day in that month, an increase of 33% from daily turnover of $4 trillion in 2010. Forex turnover has more than quadrupled since 2001, when it was just over $1.2 trillion.

Total forex turnover is estimated to have declined by about $300 billion since the survey period to approximately $5 trillion, which still represents an impressive 25% growth rate from 2010. Expectations of a major shift in Japan’s monetary policy led to exceptional forex trading activity – particularly in the yen – in the run-up to the April 2013 survey.

The Established Forex Hierarchy

The 2013 BIS survey showed that the U.S. dollar continued to be numero uno by a very wide margin, contrary to occasional speculation about the greenback’s eventual demise. The U.S. dollar accounted for an 87.0% share of average daily forex turnover in April 2013. (Note that since two currencies are involved in each forex transaction, the sum of the percentage shares of individual currencies will total 200% rather than 100%.)

The next three positions were occupied by the euro (33.4% share), Japanese yen (23.0%) and British pound (11.8%). Among the major currencies, trading in the yen surged the most, rising 63% since the 2010 survey for reasons mentioned earlier. These top-four currencies have had the same ranks in the global currency hierarchy in this millennium, although their relative turnover share has fluctuated to a limited extent over the years.

The next three currencies in the April 2013 survey were the Australian dollar, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar. These currencies have swapped places among themselves since 2001. For example, the Australian dollar ranked seventh that year, but it doubled its share of global forex turnover since then to become the fifth-most traded currency in 2013.

Currency Challengers to the Status Quo

Four of the seven leading second-tier currencies are easy to identify, belonging as they do to the biggest emerging economies or BRIC – the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, Indian rupee and Chinese renminbi (or yuan). The other three currencies are less obvious – the Mexican peso, Turkish lira and South African rand. The collective share of average daily forex turnover of these seven currencies has increased from 6.2% in 2010 to 10.8% in 2013 (as mentioned earlier, the sum of individual currency shares totals 200%). Note that all seven currencies belong to emerging market economies (EMEs).

There has been a phenomenal increase in daily turnover for some of these currencies, with the biggest trading surges recorded by the Mexican peso, Chinese renminbi and Russian ruble. Turnover in the Mexican peso increased 171% from 2010 to $135 billion in 2013, giving the currency a 2.5% share of global forex trading and making it No. 8 among the most actively traded currencies. However, the biggest increase in forex trading was recorded by the Chinese renminbi, as daily turnover soared 250% since 2010 to $120 billion in 2013, giving it the No. 9 position among the most-active currencies. The Russian ruble also had a 140% increase in daily forex turnover to $85 billion, enabling it to climb four spots from 2010 to the No. 12 rank in 2013.

The increased share of forex turnover by these emerging currencies has come at the expense of major currencies such as the euro, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar. With the international role of the euro having contracted since the continent’s sovereign debt crisis erupted in 2010, euro forex turnover increased only 15% from 2010 to about $1.8 trillion per day. Although the euro remains the second most traded currency worldwide, its share of global forex turnover declined by almost 6 percentage points to 33.4% in 2013.


Carry Trades and the “Fragile Five”

Leveraged carry trades may partly explain the exponential increase in EME currency trading, but they are far from the only reason. Most of these seven currencies offer high interest rates, making them favored targets for carry traders. For example, as of May 22, 2014, the yield on 10-year government bonds in some of these nations was as follows – Brazil, 11.18%; India, 8.71%; and South Africa, 8.04%. Contrast those yields with the 2.55% yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury, and it’s easy to see why those interest differentials may be so alluring to savvy traders.

But the high interest rates offered by many EME currencies are there for a reason - rampant inflation. A number of these emerging economies are also beset by structural issues such as growing current-account and budget deficits. In fact, these weak economic fundamentals led Morgan Stanley (MS) last year to identify a group of emerging economies as the “Fragile Five” – Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa and Turkey. These five economies have – on average – a budget deficit of 4.0%, current-account deficit of 4.1% and inflation of 7.5%. Concerns that tighter U.S. monetary policy would make it difficult for these nations to attract foreign capital to fund their deficits led to sharp declines in their currencies and stock markets from the summer of 2013 to early 2014.

According to an analysis by BIS staffers, quantitative forex strategies such as carry trades and momentum trades were unlikely to have been the main driver of turnover growth from 2010-13. Over this period, shrinking interest rate differentials due to easier monetary policy by many central banks, the narrow trading range for most major currencies and sudden policy actions – such as those taken by the European Central Bank during the debt crisis – made it an especially challenging time for quant strategies. As a result, quant currency hedge funds had substantial outflows, with assets under management declining from a peak of $35 billion in 2007-08 to just over $10 billion by 2013.

So What is Driving Forex Turnover?

Based on BIS data and findings, three main drivers may account for rapid growth in forex turnover of the emerging-market economies:

  • Exceptional demand for OTC forex derivatives: Forex growth in the EMEs has been led by very strong demand for over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives such as currency forwards, swaps and options. OTC derivatives turnover rose by 41% over the 2010-13 period, from $380 billion to $535 billion, compared with an increase of 17% in spot-forex turnover. This supports the view that hedging demand and speculation by foreign portfolio investors is a primary driver of higher forex turnover.

  • “Internationalization" of emerging-market currencies: Offshore trading – or trading of a currency outside the jurisdiction where it is issued – is a gauge of a currency’s “internationalization.” The offshore component has had the most rapid growth in EME currencies, especially for the Asian currencies such as the renminbi and rupee, with offshore trading contributing as much as 35 percentage points to growth of 41% in the 2010-13 period. The Chinese renminbi is playing an increasingly important role within Asia in this regard, with offshore turnover of $86 billion daily, which amounts to 72% of its global trading volume.

  • “Financialization” of EME currencies: For decades now, the increase in global forex turnover has been magnitudes higher than underlying growth in the global economy or worldwide trade. Growth in EME forex turnover is no exception to this trend, implying that “financialization” of these currencies will continue. That said, part of the forex volume growth can be attributed to higher portfolio flows, with BIS analysis suggesting a positive and statistically highly significant relationship between portfolio inflows and outflows in emerging markets and forex turnover in the respective currencies. For instance, a 10% increase in cross-border fund flows is associated with a 7% increase in global forex turnover for Asian currencies, and a 10% increase for Latin American currencies.

The Table below shows the extent to which forex turnover exceeds GDPand total trade (imports and exports of goods and services) for these seven economies. The ratio of annual forex turnover (calculated on the basis of 250 working days in a year) to GDP ranges from a low of 3.6 for China to a high of 39 for South Africa, compared with an average of 63 for the seven most widely traded currencies. By that measure, the financialization trend of these seven currencies – in particular the BRIC nations – looks unlikely to change.
Rank*Economy2012 GDP2012 TradeDaily FX Est. AnnualAnnual FX Annual FX 
(US$ billions)(US$ billions)turnover ($bn)FX T/O ($bn)Turnover  / GDPTurnover  / Trade
2China8,2274,33712030,0003.66.9
7Brazil2,2535925914,7506.524.9
8Russia 2,0151,0268521,25010.520.7
10India1,8591,0525313,2507.112.6
14Mexico1,17877613533,75028.643.5
17Turkey7894507017,50022.238.9
28South Africa3842116015,00039.071.1
* Global economy rank based on 2012 GDP



The Bottom Line: As these seven economies continue to grow in size and stature in the years ahead, a combination of hedging and speculative demand, internationalization and financialization may lead to them accounting for an increasing share of global forex turnover for the foreseeable future.

NOTA 14: FOREX SUCCESS

 






 NOTA 15 TREND PASANGAN MATA WANG GBP DAN GOLD
TREND GBPUSD
TREND GOLD


NOTA 16 : AYUH BERDAGANG MENGGUNAKAN AKAUN NYATA

 
From: PaxForex
 

1 comment:

  1. Iqbal MohammadDecember 19, 2019 at 4:33 AM

    Strategi Forex trading

    Adalah Kamu mencari untuk itu Strategi Forex trading dan Strategi trading emas? JavaFX.News menyediakan berita untuk Strategi Forex trading dan Strategi trading emas.

    to get more - https://www.javafx.news/webminar/strategi-trading

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